Recent National Weather Service and model consensus from NOAA indicate Austin will see mostly sunny skies and southerly flow on September 15, supporting afternoon highs near 98–100°F amid lingering high pressure. This positions 100–101°F and nearby bins as scientifically favored outcomes based on current guidance, though slight model spread and typical forecast uncertainty around peak heating could shift results. The elevated 48.5% market weighting on 91°F or below reflects either early positioning or hedging ahead of potential revisions in the next 48 hours, while the cluster of 19–20% odds on 98–105°F ranges aligns with the observed warm bias and historical September norms for the region. Updated model runs and local observations will likely refine these implied probabilities before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月15日奧斯汀的最高溫度？
9月15日奧斯汀的最高溫度？
98-99°F 40%
96-97°F 39%
102-103°F 39%
100-101°F 30%
最新
最新
2026-09-15
91°F或以下
4%
92-93°F
5%
94-95°F
19%
96-97°F
39%
98-99°F
40%
100-101°F
30%
102-103°F
39%
104-105°F
8%
106-107°F
4%
108-109°F
2%
華氏110度或更高
2%
98-99°F 40%
96-97°F 39%
102-103°F 39%
100-101°F 30%
最新
最新
2026-09-15
91°F或以下
$0 交易量
4%
92-93°F
$9 交易量
5%
94-95°F
$0 交易量
19%
96-97°F
$0 交易量
39%
98-99°F
$0 交易量
40%
100-101°F
$0 交易量
30%
102-103°F
$0 交易量
39%
104-105°F
$0 交易量
8%
106-107°F
$0 交易量
4%
108-109°F
$0 交易量
2%
華氏110度或更高
$0 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model consensus from NOAA indicate Austin will see mostly sunny skies and southerly flow on September 15, supporting afternoon highs near 98–100°F amid lingering high pressure. This positions 100–101°F and nearby bins as scientifically favored outcomes based on current guidance, though slight model spread and typical forecast uncertainty around peak heating could shift results. The elevated 48.5% market weighting on 91°F or below reflects either early positioning or hedging ahead of potential revisions in the next 48 hours, while the cluster of 19–20% odds on 98–105°F ranges aligns with the observed warm bias and historical September norms for the region. Updated model runs and local observations will likely refine these implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ET
交易量
$9結束日期
2026-09-15市場開放時間
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model consensus from NOAA indicate Austin will see mostly sunny skies and southerly flow on September 15, supporting afternoon highs near 98–100°F amid lingering high pressure. This positions 100–101°F and nearby bins as scientifically favored outcomes based on current guidance, though slight model spread and typical forecast uncertainty around peak heating could shift results. The elevated 48.5% market weighting on 91°F or below reflects either early positioning or hedging ahead of potential revisions in the next 48 hours, while the cluster of 19–20% odds on 98–105°F ranges aligns with the observed warm bias and historical September norms for the region. Updated model runs and local observations will likely refine these implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$9結束日期
2026-09-15市場開放時間
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETRecent National Weather Service and model consensus from NOAA indicate Austin will see mostly sunny skies and southerly flow on September 15, supporting afternoon highs near 98–100°F amid lingering high pressure. This positions 100–101°F and nearby bins as scientifically favored outcomes based on current guidance, though slight model spread and typical forecast uncertainty around peak heating could shift results. The elevated 48.5% market weighting on 91°F or below reflects either early positioning or hedging ahead of potential revisions in the next 48 hours, while the cluster of 19–20% odds on 98–105°F ranges aligns with the observed warm bias and historical September norms for the region. Updated model runs and local observations will likely refine these implied probabilities before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions