Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to a 22°C high in Chengdu on April 30, backed by China Meteorological Administration observations at Shuangliu International Airport showing midday peaks near 21°C amid persistent overcast skies, 99% cloud cover, and north-northeasterly winds that curb solar insolation and convective heating. ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts align with a maximum of 22–23°C under this cooler synoptic pattern, diverging from April's typical 23–24°C average due to incoming light rain suppressing further warming. Final CMA data after midnight will confirm resolution; a sudden cloud break enabling brief insolation spikes could realistically push to 23°C, though model uncertainty ranges deem this low-probability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 30?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 30?
22°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$64,338 交易量
$64,338 交易量
2026-04-30
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$64,338 交易量
$64,338 交易量
2026-04-30
18°C or below
$2,314 交易量
No
19°C
$3,038 交易量
No
20°C
$5,257 交易量
No
21°C
$7,245 交易量
No
22°C
$12,278 交易量
Yes
23°C
$7,854 交易量
No
24°C
$5,815 交易量
No
25°C
$5,971 交易量
No
26°C
$4,914 交易量
No
27°C
$4,420 交易量
No
28°C or higher
$5,232 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to a 22°C high in Chengdu on April 30, backed by China Meteorological Administration observations at Shuangliu International Airport showing midday peaks near 21°C amid persistent overcast skies, 99% cloud cover, and north-northeasterly winds that curb solar insolation and convective heating. ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts align with a maximum of 22–23°C under this cooler synoptic pattern, diverging from April's typical 23–24°C average due to incoming light rain suppressing further warming. Final CMA data after midnight will confirm resolution; a sudden cloud break enabling brief insolation spikes could realistically push to 23°C, though model uncertainty ranges deem this low-probability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 28, 2026, 3:02 PM ET
交易量
$64,338結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Apr 28, 2026, 3:02 PM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to a 22°C high in Chengdu on April 30, backed by China Meteorological Administration observations at Shuangliu International Airport showing midday peaks near 21°C amid persistent overcast skies, 99% cloud cover, and north-northeasterly winds that curb solar insolation and convective heating. ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts align with a maximum of 22–23°C under this cooler synoptic pattern, diverging from April's typical 23–24°C average due to incoming light rain suppressing further warming. Final CMA data after midnight will confirm resolution; a sudden cloud break enabling brief insolation spikes could realistically push to 23°C, though model uncertainty ranges deem this low-probability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$64,338結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Apr 28, 2026, 3:02 PM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to a 22°C high in Chengdu on April 30, backed by China Meteorological Administration observations at Shuangliu International Airport showing midday peaks near 21°C amid persistent overcast skies, 99% cloud cover, and north-northeasterly winds that curb solar insolation and convective heating. ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts align with a maximum of 22–23°C under this cooler synoptic pattern, diverging from April's typical 23–24°C average due to incoming light rain suppressing further warming. Final CMA data after midnight will confirm resolution; a sudden cloud break enabling brief insolation spikes could realistically push to 23°C, though model uncertainty ranges deem this low-probability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions