Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models converge on an overnight minimum near 21–22 °C for Chengdu on 30 August, driven by radiative cooling under partly cloudy to clearing skies after scattered showers on the 29th. Light winds, moderate humidity, and the absence of strong advection allow surface temperatures to drop efficiently once daytime heating ends, with ensemble guidance showing only modest spread around these values. Official bulletins list a 22 °C low alongside a 33 °C high and overcast conditions, while some local projections dip to 20 °C if clearing occurs earlier. Trader consensus clusters tightly at 21–22 °C because small differences in cloud timing or boundary-layer mixing can shift the exact minimum by 1–2 °C within the resolution window, keeping higher or lower outcomes at low implied probability.