Recent forecast consensus from models such as GFS and observational guidance places Madrid’s September 10 maximum near 28°C under mostly clear skies, light southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover that limits afternoon heating. This aligns with the market’s leading 51.5% implied probability for 28°C, followed by 27°C and 29°C outcomes that capture typical model spread of 1–2°C. Stable high-pressure conditions and the absence of significant frontal systems or moisture have kept probabilities steady, consistent with historical September averages around 27–28°C. Final AEMET updates and overnight model runs ahead of resolution remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift trader positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月10日馬德裏氣溫最高？
9月10日馬德裏氣溫最高？
28°C 52%
27°C 25%
29°C 21%
26°C 3%
最新
最新
2026-09-10
24°C或以下
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
3%
27°C
25%
28°C
52%
29°C
21%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C或以上
<1%
28°C 52%
27°C 25%
29°C 21%
26°C 3%
最新
最新
2026-09-10
24°C或以下
$269 交易量
<1%
25°C
$99 交易量
1%
26°C
$259 交易量
3%
27°C
$1,779 交易量
25%
28°C
$1,094 交易量
52%
29°C
$1,748 交易量
21%
30°C
$93 交易量
1%
31°C
$195 交易量
1%
32°C
$191 交易量
<1%
33°C
$731 交易量
<1%
34°C或以上
$523 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models such as GFS and observational guidance places Madrid’s September 10 maximum near 28°C under mostly clear skies, light southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover that limits afternoon heating. This aligns with the market’s leading 51.5% implied probability for 28°C, followed by 27°C and 29°C outcomes that capture typical model spread of 1–2°C. Stable high-pressure conditions and the absence of significant frontal systems or moisture have kept probabilities steady, consistent with historical September averages around 27–28°C. Final AEMET updates and overnight model runs ahead of resolution remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$6,979結束日期
2026-09-10市場開放時間
Sep 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models such as GFS and observational guidance places Madrid’s September 10 maximum near 28°C under mostly clear skies, light southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover that limits afternoon heating. This aligns with the market’s leading 51.5% implied probability for 28°C, followed by 27°C and 29°C outcomes that capture typical model spread of 1–2°C. Stable high-pressure conditions and the absence of significant frontal systems or moisture have kept probabilities steady, consistent with historical September averages around 27–28°C. Final AEMET updates and overnight model runs ahead of resolution remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$6,979結束日期
2026-09-10市場開放時間
Sep 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent forecast consensus from models such as GFS and observational guidance places Madrid’s September 10 maximum near 28°C under mostly clear skies, light southerly winds, and minimal cloud cover that limits afternoon heating. This aligns with the market’s leading 51.5% implied probability for 28°C, followed by 27°C and 29°C outcomes that capture typical model spread of 1–2°C. Stable high-pressure conditions and the absence of significant frontal systems or moisture have kept probabilities steady, consistent with historical September averages around 27–28°C. Final AEMET updates and overnight model runs ahead of resolution remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift trader positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions