Traders see the 82–83°F bin as the narrow favorite at 21.5% implied probability because the latest National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance place the July 18 maximum near that range under a building ridge with light southerly flow. Ensemble spreads from the GFS and ECMWF still straddle the 78–85°F window, reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon cloud cover that could trim or boost readings by a degree or two. With no strong frontal passage or significant moisture advection expected, historical July climatology for Central Park supports a central-tendency outcome near 81°F, keeping the tightly clustered 78–81°F and 82–83°F bins dominant. New 00Z and 12Z model runs tonight will likely tighten the distribution ahead of the observation window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月18日紐約市的最高溫度？
7月18日紐約市的最高溫度？
80-81°F 100.0%
77°F or below <1%
78-79°F <1%
82-83°F <1%
$106,128 交易量
$106,128 交易量
2026-07-18
77°F or below
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
Yes
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88-89°F
No
90-91°F
No
92-93°F
No
94-95°F
No
96°F or higher
No
80-81°F 100.0%
77°F or below <1%
78-79°F <1%
82-83°F <1%
$106,128 交易量
$106,128 交易量
2026-07-18
77°F or below
$13,081 交易量
No
78-79°F
$13,233 交易量
No
80-81°F
$20,092 交易量
Yes
82-83°F
$8,422 交易量
No
84-85°F
$12,944 交易量
No
86-87°F
$12,935 交易量
No
88-89°F
$17,904 交易量
No
90-91°F
$4,463 交易量
No
92-93°F
$2,417 交易量
No
94-95°F
$386 交易量
No
96°F or higher
$250 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the 82–83°F bin as the narrow favorite at 21.5% implied probability because the latest National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance place the July 18 maximum near that range under a building ridge with light southerly flow. Ensemble spreads from the GFS and ECMWF still straddle the 78–85°F window, reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon cloud cover that could trim or boost readings by a degree or two. With no strong frontal passage or significant moisture advection expected, historical July climatology for Central Park supports a central-tendency outcome near 81°F, keeping the tightly clustered 78–81°F and 82–83°F bins dominant. New 00Z and 12Z model runs tonight will likely tighten the distribution ahead of the observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
交易量
$106,128結束日期
2026-07-18市場開放時間
Jul 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the 82–83°F bin as the narrow favorite at 21.5% implied probability because the latest National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance place the July 18 maximum near that range under a building ridge with light southerly flow. Ensemble spreads from the GFS and ECMWF still straddle the 78–85°F window, reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon cloud cover that could trim or boost readings by a degree or two. With no strong frontal passage or significant moisture advection expected, historical July climatology for Central Park supports a central-tendency outcome near 81°F, keeping the tightly clustered 78–81°F and 82–83°F bins dominant. New 00Z and 12Z model runs tonight will likely tighten the distribution ahead of the observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$106,128結束日期
2026-07-18市場開放時間
Jul 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Traders see the 82–83°F bin as the narrow favorite at 21.5% implied probability because the latest National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance place the July 18 maximum near that range under a building ridge with light southerly flow. Ensemble spreads from the GFS and ECMWF still straddle the 78–85°F window, reflecting modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon cloud cover that could trim or boost readings by a degree or two. With no strong frontal passage or significant moisture advection expected, historical July climatology for Central Park supports a central-tendency outcome near 81°F, keeping the tightly clustered 78–81°F and 82–83°F bins dominant. New 00Z and 12Z model runs tonight will likely tighten the distribution ahead of the observation window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions