Latest ensemble forecasts from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS models project Paris's highest temperature on April 4 reaching 16–19°C under a developing high-pressure ridge that promises drier conditions and warmer air advection, driving trader consensus toward 17°C or higher at 52% implied probability and 16°C at 27%. This marks a shift from recent cooler days, where overcast skies capped highs at 12–13°C on April 2–3 amid persistent low-pressure influences. April climatology typically sees average highs near 14°C, so current guidance reflects modestly above-normal warmth with reduced cloud cover after possible morning sprinkles. Inherent model uncertainty persists—new 12Z runs early on April 4 could adjust trajectories—before official measurements from Paris stations resolve the market.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Paris on April 4?
Highest temperature in Paris on April 4?
17°C or higher 53%
16°C 27%
15°C 9.3%
14°C 3.6%
$19,062 交易量
$19,062 交易量
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
4%
15°C
9%
16°C
27%
17°C or higher
53%
17°C or higher 53%
16°C 27%
15°C 9.3%
14°C 3.6%
$19,062 交易量
$19,062 交易量
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
4%
15°C
9%
16°C
27%
17°C or higher
53%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 29, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest ensemble forecasts from Météo-France, ECMWF, and GFS models project Paris's highest temperature on April 4 reaching 16–19°C under a developing high-pressure ridge that promises drier conditions and warmer air advection, driving trader consensus toward 17°C or higher at 52% implied probability and 16°C at 27%. This marks a shift from recent cooler days, where overcast skies capped highs at 12–13°C on April 2–3 amid persistent low-pressure influences. April climatology typically sees average highs near 14°C, so current guidance reflects modestly above-normal warmth with reduced cloud cover after possible morning sprinkles. Inherent model uncertainty persists—new 12Z runs early on April 4 could adjust trajectories—before official measurements from Paris stations resolve the market.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions