Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 26°C at 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature on May 6, driven by real-time observational data from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station—the market's official resolution source—showing a peak of 26°C amid persistent cloud cover, high humidity above 70%, and scattered showers that have limited daytime solar heating. Current hourly readings from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like ECMWF confirm temperatures stabilizing around 25–26°C in the late afternoon, well below May climatological averages of 29°C due to a recent influx of moist southerly air. While a dramatic clearing before sunset (around 6:50 PM local time) could enable brief convective warming to 27°C, the low solar angle and overcast conditions render this scenario highly improbable, solidifying the market's positioning. Final airport data releases by midnight will confirm resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 6?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 6?
26°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$73,420 交易量
$73,420 交易量
2026-05-06
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$73,420 交易量
$73,420 交易量
2026-05-06
22°C or below
$856 交易量
No
23°C
$476 交易量
No
24°C
$1,021 交易量
No
25°C
$3,521 交易量
No
26°C
$24,842 交易量
Yes
27°C
$10,805 交易量
No
28°C
$18,846 交易量
No
29°C
$5,326 交易量
No
30°C
$4,236 交易量
No
31°C
$2,427 交易量
No
32°C or higher
$1,064 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 26°C at 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature on May 6, driven by real-time observational data from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station—the market's official resolution source—showing a peak of 26°C amid persistent cloud cover, high humidity above 70%, and scattered showers that have limited daytime solar heating. Current hourly readings from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like ECMWF confirm temperatures stabilizing around 25–26°C in the late afternoon, well below May climatological averages of 29°C due to a recent influx of moist southerly air. While a dramatic clearing before sunset (around 6:50 PM local time) could enable brief convective warming to 27°C, the low solar angle and overcast conditions render this scenario highly improbable, solidifying the market's positioning. Final airport data releases by midnight will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 4, 2026, 12:18 PM ET
交易量
$73,420結束日期
2026-05-06市場開放時間
May 4, 2026, 12:18 PM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 26°C at 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature on May 6, driven by real-time observational data from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station—the market's official resolution source—showing a peak of 26°C amid persistent cloud cover, high humidity above 70%, and scattered showers that have limited daytime solar heating. Current hourly readings from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like ECMWF confirm temperatures stabilizing around 25–26°C in the late afternoon, well below May climatological averages of 29°C due to a recent influx of moist southerly air. While a dramatic clearing before sunset (around 6:50 PM local time) could enable brief convective warming to 27°C, the low solar angle and overcast conditions render this scenario highly improbable, solidifying the market's positioning. Final airport data releases by midnight will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$73,420結束日期
2026-05-06市場開放時間
May 4, 2026, 12:18 PM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 26°C at 100% implied probability for Shenzhen's highest temperature on May 6, driven by real-time observational data from the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport station—the market's official resolution source—showing a peak of 26°C amid persistent cloud cover, high humidity above 70%, and scattered showers that have limited daytime solar heating. Current hourly readings from the China Meteorological Administration and international models like ECMWF confirm temperatures stabilizing around 25–26°C in the late afternoon, well below May climatological averages of 29°C due to a recent influx of moist southerly air. While a dramatic clearing before sunset (around 6:50 PM local time) could enable brief convective warming to 27°C, the low solar angle and overcast conditions render this scenario highly improbable, solidifying the market's positioning. Final airport data releases by midnight will confirm resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions