**Cloud cover, showers, and a coastal marine influence are the main drivers keeping trader-implied odds tightly clustered around 82–85 °F for NYC’s August 3 high.** Official NWS point forecasts and recent model guidance show a period of increasing moisture and unsettled conditions Sunday night into Monday, with mostly cloudy skies, scattered to numerous showers or thunderstorms, and south-southeast winds that limit daytime heating. These factors typically cap maximum temperatures a few degrees below the long-term August average of 83 °F at Central Park. The narrow spread between the two leading bins (84–85 °F at 36.5 % and 82–83 °F at 33.5 %) reflects genuine forecast uncertainty: small differences in cloud timing, rainfall intensity, or sea-breeze onset can shift the daily peak by 1–2 °F. Lower-probability outcomes below 80 °F gain traction only if heavier, more persistent rain develops earlier in the day, while the slim odds above 86 °F would require unexpected clearing and stronger insolation. Traders are therefore pricing the balance between climatological norms and the latest short-range model consensus that favors a tempered high in the low-to-mid 80s.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月3日紐約市的最高溫度？
8月3日紐約市的最高溫度？
84-85°F 37%
82-83°F 34%
80-81°F 21%
78-79°F 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-03
73°F or below
2%
74-75°F
3%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
8%
80-81°F
21%
82-83°F
34%
84-85°F
37%
86-87°F
8%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
1%
92°F or higher
1%
84-85°F 37%
82-83°F 34%
80-81°F 21%
78-79°F 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-03
73°F or below
$5 交易量
2%
74-75°F
$10 交易量
3%
76-77°F
$5 交易量
3%
78-79°F
$0 交易量
8%
80-81°F
$0 交易量
21%
82-83°F
$0 交易量
34%
84-85°F
$45 交易量
37%
86-87°F
$1 交易量
8%
88-89°F
$35 交易量
1%
90-91°F
$20 交易量
1%
92°F or higher
$15 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Cloud cover, showers, and a coastal marine influence are the main drivers keeping trader-implied odds tightly clustered around 82–85 °F for NYC’s August 3 high.** Official NWS point forecasts and recent model guidance show a period of increasing moisture and unsettled conditions Sunday night into Monday, with mostly cloudy skies, scattered to numerous showers or thunderstorms, and south-southeast winds that limit daytime heating. These factors typically cap maximum temperatures a few degrees below the long-term August average of 83 °F at Central Park.
The narrow spread between the two leading bins (84–85 °F at 36.5 % and 82–83 °F at 33.5 %) reflects genuine forecast uncertainty: small differences in cloud timing, rainfall intensity, or sea-breeze onset can shift the daily peak by 1–2 °F. Lower-probability outcomes below 80 °F gain traction only if heavier, more persistent rain develops earlier in the day, while the slim odds above 86 °F would require unexpected clearing and stronger insolation.
Traders are therefore pricing the balance between climatological norms and the latest short-range model consensus that favors a tempered high in the low-to-mid 80s.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 1, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
交易量
$136結束日期
2026-08-03市場開放時間
Aug 1, 2026, 9:03 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Cloud cover, showers, and a coastal marine influence are the main drivers keeping trader-implied odds tightly clustered around 82–85 °F for NYC’s August 3 high.** Official NWS point forecasts and recent model guidance show a period of increasing moisture and unsettled conditions Sunday night into Monday, with mostly cloudy skies, scattered to numerous showers or thunderstorms, and south-southeast winds that limit daytime heating. These factors typically cap maximum temperatures a few degrees below the long-term August average of 83 °F at Central Park.
The narrow spread between the two leading bins (84–85 °F at 36.5 % and 82–83 °F at 33.5 %) reflects genuine forecast uncertainty: small differences in cloud timing, rainfall intensity, or sea-breeze onset can shift the daily peak by 1–2 °F. Lower-probability outcomes below 80 °F gain traction only if heavier, more persistent rain develops earlier in the day, while the slim odds above 86 °F would require unexpected clearing and stronger insolation.
Traders are therefore pricing the balance between climatological norms and the latest short-range model consensus that favors a tempered high in the low-to-mid 80s.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$136結束日期
2026-08-03市場開放時間
Aug 1, 2026, 9:03 PM ET**Cloud cover, showers, and a coastal marine influence are the main drivers keeping trader-implied odds tightly clustered around 82–85 °F for NYC’s August 3 high.** Official NWS point forecasts and recent model guidance show a period of increasing moisture and unsettled conditions Sunday night into Monday, with mostly cloudy skies, scattered to numerous showers or thunderstorms, and south-southeast winds that limit daytime heating. These factors typically cap maximum temperatures a few degrees below the long-term August average of 83 °F at Central Park. The narrow spread between the two leading bins (84–85 °F at 36.5 % and 82–83 °F at 33.5 %) reflects genuine forecast uncertainty: small differences in cloud timing, rainfall intensity, or sea-breeze onset can shift the daily peak by 1–2 °F. Lower-probability outcomes below 80 °F gain traction only if heavier, more persistent rain develops earlier in the day, while the slim odds above 86 °F would require unexpected clearing and stronger insolation. Traders are therefore pricing the balance between climatological norms and the latest short-range model consensus that favors a tempered high in the low-to-mid 80s.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions