Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Tel Aviv's highest temperature reaching 34°C or higher on May 12, 2026, driven by ongoing Sharav conditions—hot, dry easterly winds from the desert suppressing coastal sea breezes and advecting extreme heat inland. Israel Meteorological Service observations confirm rapid warming, with 32°C recorded midday at regional stations, while the resolving Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) NOAA data, which captures localized peaks, aligns with model consensus for highs exceeding 34°C amid high heat stress warnings. Historical May averages hover around 26–28°C, but today's synoptic pattern overrides norms; only an unexpected late-afternoon marine layer incursion or data revision could challenge this, pending final hourly finalized readings.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 12?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 12?
34°C or higher 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$92,360 交易量
$92,360 交易量
2026-05-12
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
Yes
34°C or higher 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$92,360 交易量
$92,360 交易量
2026-05-12
24°C or below
$3,182 交易量
No
25°C
$5,066 交易量
No
26°C
$6,746 交易量
No
27°C
$7,579 交易量
No
28°C
$15,651 交易量
No
29°C
$10,593 交易量
No
30°C
$11,548 交易量
No
31°C
$4,265 交易量
No
32°C
$5,161 交易量
No
33°C
$14,635 交易量
No
34°C or higher
$7,936 交易量
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Tel Aviv's highest temperature reaching 34°C or higher on May 12, 2026, driven by ongoing Sharav conditions—hot, dry easterly winds from the desert suppressing coastal sea breezes and advecting extreme heat inland. Israel Meteorological Service observations confirm rapid warming, with 32°C recorded midday at regional stations, while the resolving Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) NOAA data, which captures localized peaks, aligns with model consensus for highs exceeding 34°C amid high heat stress warnings. Historical May averages hover around 26–28°C, but today's synoptic pattern overrides norms; only an unexpected late-afternoon marine layer incursion or data revision could challenge this, pending final hourly finalized readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 10, 2026, 12:48 AM ET
交易量
$92,360結束日期
2026-05-12市場開放時間
May 10, 2026, 12:48 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Tel Aviv's highest temperature reaching 34°C or higher on May 12, 2026, driven by ongoing Sharav conditions—hot, dry easterly winds from the desert suppressing coastal sea breezes and advecting extreme heat inland. Israel Meteorological Service observations confirm rapid warming, with 32°C recorded midday at regional stations, while the resolving Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) NOAA data, which captures localized peaks, aligns with model consensus for highs exceeding 34°C amid high heat stress warnings. Historical May averages hover around 26–28°C, but today's synoptic pattern overrides norms; only an unexpected late-afternoon marine layer incursion or data revision could challenge this, pending final hourly finalized readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$92,360結束日期
2026-05-12市場開放時間
May 10, 2026, 12:48 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for Tel Aviv's highest temperature reaching 34°C or higher on May 12, 2026, driven by ongoing Sharav conditions—hot, dry easterly winds from the desert suppressing coastal sea breezes and advecting extreme heat inland. Israel Meteorological Service observations confirm rapid warming, with 32°C recorded midday at regional stations, while the resolving Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) NOAA data, which captures localized peaks, aligns with model consensus for highs exceeding 34°C amid high heat stress warnings. Historical May averages hover around 26–28°C, but today's synoptic pattern overrides norms; only an unexpected late-afternoon marine layer incursion or data revision could challenge this, pending final hourly finalized readings.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions