Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 16°C high temperature in Wellington on May 5, backed by MetService observations at Wellington International Airport showing midday peaks plateauing at 15–16°C under partly cloudy skies and persistent northerly winds gusting to 50 km/h. This aligns with the agency's latest forecast of a 15°C daytime maximum amid a high-pressure ridge, consistent with May climatological averages around 15°C for the region. Current late-afternoon readings at 13°C signal the peak has passed with sunset approaching at 5:23pm, minimizing upside risk; only an improbable prolonged clear spell with sudden solar heating could push toward 17°C, though model consensus and cooling trends make this unlikely. Final airport data expected by midnight will resolve the market.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Wellington on May 5?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 5?
16°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$67,272 交易量
$67,272 交易量
2026-05-05
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$67,272 交易量
$67,272 交易量
2026-05-05
10°C or below
$2,514 交易量
No
11°C
$570 交易量
No
12°C
$1,178 交易量
No
13°C
$2,499 交易量
No
14°C
$11,780 交易量
No
15°C
$18,526 交易量
No
16°C
$12,393 交易量
Yes
17°C
$6,427 交易量
No
18°C
$5,447 交易量
No
19°C
$3,065 交易量
No
20°C or higher
$2,873 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 16°C high temperature in Wellington on May 5, backed by MetService observations at Wellington International Airport showing midday peaks plateauing at 15–16°C under partly cloudy skies and persistent northerly winds gusting to 50 km/h. This aligns with the agency's latest forecast of a 15°C daytime maximum amid a high-pressure ridge, consistent with May climatological averages around 15°C for the region. Current late-afternoon readings at 13°C signal the peak has passed with sunset approaching at 5:23pm, minimizing upside risk; only an improbable prolonged clear spell with sudden solar heating could push toward 17°C, though model consensus and cooling trends make this unlikely. Final airport data expected by midnight will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
交易量
$67,272結束日期
2026-05-05市場開放時間
May 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 16°C high temperature in Wellington on May 5, backed by MetService observations at Wellington International Airport showing midday peaks plateauing at 15–16°C under partly cloudy skies and persistent northerly winds gusting to 50 km/h. This aligns with the agency's latest forecast of a 15°C daytime maximum amid a high-pressure ridge, consistent with May climatological averages around 15°C for the region. Current late-afternoon readings at 13°C signal the peak has passed with sunset approaching at 5:23pm, minimizing upside risk; only an improbable prolonged clear spell with sudden solar heating could push toward 17°C, though model consensus and cooling trends make this unlikely. Final airport data expected by midnight will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$67,272結束日期
2026-05-05市場開放時間
May 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 16°C high temperature in Wellington on May 5, backed by MetService observations at Wellington International Airport showing midday peaks plateauing at 15–16°C under partly cloudy skies and persistent northerly winds gusting to 50 km/h. This aligns with the agency's latest forecast of a 15°C daytime maximum amid a high-pressure ridge, consistent with May climatological averages around 15°C for the region. Current late-afternoon readings at 13°C signal the peak has passed with sunset approaching at 5:23pm, minimizing upside risk; only an improbable prolonged clear spell with sudden solar heating could push toward 17°C, though model consensus and cooling trends make this unlikely. Final airport data expected by midnight will resolve the market.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions