Current short-range forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and BBC place Wuhan's July 4 maximum near 27–29°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and moderate humidity, aligning with market-implied odds clustered around those values. Model consensus reflects a transitional monsoon pattern with residual moisture from the plum-rain season suppressing full insolation, while steering flow keeps warmer air masses at bay. Small probability spreads among 26–30°C outcomes stem from typical ensemble spread in 48-hour temperature predictions—driven by uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon convection, and exact cloud cover—plus local urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C variability. Historical July averages near 32°C provide context, yet near-term guidance favors the lower end of the climatological range. Updated model runs over the next 24 hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria for this daily maximum.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月4日武漢氣溫最高？
7月4日武漢氣溫最高？
27°C 100.0%
23°C或以下 <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$71,683 交易量
$71,683 交易量
2026-07-04
23°C或以下
否
24°C
否
25°C
否
26°C
否
27°C
是
28°C
否
29°C
否
30°C
否
31°C
否
32°C
否
33°C或以上
否
27°C 100.0%
23°C或以下 <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$71,683 交易量
$71,683 交易量
2026-07-04
23°C或以下
$4,102 交易量
否
24°C
$7,459 交易量
否
25°C
$9,514 交易量
否
26°C
$8,590 交易量
否
27°C
$6,941 交易量
是
28°C
$13,956 交易量
否
29°C
$3,540 交易量
否
30°C
$5,272 交易量
否
31°C
$6,103 交易量
否
32°C
$3,535 交易量
否
33°C或以上
$2,672 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and BBC place Wuhan's July 4 maximum near 27–29°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and moderate humidity, aligning with market-implied odds clustered around those values. Model consensus reflects a transitional monsoon pattern with residual moisture from the plum-rain season suppressing full insolation, while steering flow keeps warmer air masses at bay. Small probability spreads among 26–30°C outcomes stem from typical ensemble spread in 48-hour temperature predictions—driven by uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon convection, and exact cloud cover—plus local urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C variability. Historical July averages near 32°C provide context, yet near-term guidance favors the lower end of the climatological range. Updated model runs over the next 24 hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria for this daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$71,683結束日期
2026-07-04市場開放時間
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and BBC place Wuhan's July 4 maximum near 27–29°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and moderate humidity, aligning with market-implied odds clustered around those values. Model consensus reflects a transitional monsoon pattern with residual moisture from the plum-rain season suppressing full insolation, while steering flow keeps warmer air masses at bay. Small probability spreads among 26–30°C outcomes stem from typical ensemble spread in 48-hour temperature predictions—driven by uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon convection, and exact cloud cover—plus local urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C variability. Historical July averages near 32°C provide context, yet near-term guidance favors the lower end of the climatological range. Updated model runs over the next 24 hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria for this daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$71,683結束日期
2026-07-04市場開放時間
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Current short-range forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and BBC place Wuhan's July 4 maximum near 27–29°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and moderate humidity, aligning with market-implied odds clustered around those values. Model consensus reflects a transitional monsoon pattern with residual moisture from the plum-rain season suppressing full insolation, while steering flow keeps warmer air masses at bay. Small probability spreads among 26–30°C outcomes stem from typical ensemble spread in 48-hour temperature predictions—driven by uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon convection, and exact cloud cover—plus local urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C variability. Historical July averages near 32°C provide context, yet near-term guidance favors the lower end of the climatological range. Updated model runs over the next 24 hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria for this daily maximum.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions