Recent observational data from NASA and NOAA place early 2026 monthly global surface temperature anomalies near 1.12–1.18 °C above the 20th-century average, aligning closely with the market’s dominant 1.10–1.14 °C outcome. Weak La Niña conditions following the strong 2023–2025 El Niño have contributed to modest cooling relative to 2024–2025 peaks, keeping May readings within this narrow band according to preliminary agency analyses. Historical patterns show May anomalies typically track annual trends closely, and current model guidance plus ongoing monitoring indicate limited deviation is expected before final May 2026 figures are released. Trader consensus therefore reflects these verified short-term measurements and the low likelihood of rapid shifts in the coming weeks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 89%
1.15–1.19ºC 6.2%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$173,927 交易量
$173,927 交易量
2026-06-10
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
89%
1.15–1.19ºC
6%
1.20–1.24ºC
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC 89%
1.15–1.19ºC 6.2%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$173,927 交易量
$173,927 交易量
2026-06-10
<1.10ºC
$55,979 交易量
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$22,503 交易量
89%
1.15–1.19ºC
$30,169 交易量
6%
1.20–1.24ºC
$21,581 交易量
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$19,855 交易量
<1%
>1.29ºC
$23,840 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from NASA and NOAA place early 2026 monthly global surface temperature anomalies near 1.12–1.18 °C above the 20th-century average, aligning closely with the market’s dominant 1.10–1.14 °C outcome. Weak La Niña conditions following the strong 2023–2025 El Niño have contributed to modest cooling relative to 2024–2025 peaks, keeping May readings within this narrow band according to preliminary agency analyses. Historical patterns show May anomalies typically track annual trends closely, and current model guidance plus ongoing monitoring indicate limited deviation is expected before final May 2026 figures are released. Trader consensus therefore reflects these verified short-term measurements and the low likelihood of rapid shifts in the coming weeks.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市場開放時間： Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
交易量
$173,927結束日期
2026-06-10市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from NASA and NOAA place early 2026 monthly global surface temperature anomalies near 1.12–1.18 °C above the 20th-century average, aligning closely with the market’s dominant 1.10–1.14 °C outcome. Weak La Niña conditions following the strong 2023–2025 El Niño have contributed to modest cooling relative to 2024–2025 peaks, keeping May readings within this narrow band according to preliminary agency analyses. Historical patterns show May anomalies typically track annual trends closely, and current model guidance plus ongoing monitoring indicate limited deviation is expected before final May 2026 figures are released. Trader consensus therefore reflects these verified short-term measurements and the low likelihood of rapid shifts in the coming weeks.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$173,927結束日期
2026-06-10市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data from NASA and NOAA place early 2026 monthly global surface temperature anomalies near 1.12–1.18 °C above the 20th-century average, aligning closely with the market’s dominant 1.10–1.14 °C outcome. Weak La Niña conditions following the strong 2023–2025 El Niño have contributed to modest cooling relative to 2024–2025 peaks, keeping May readings within this narrow band according to preliminary agency analyses. Historical patterns show May anomalies typically track annual trends closely, and current model guidance plus ongoing monitoring indicate limited deviation is expected before final May 2026 figures are released. Trader consensus therefore reflects these verified short-term measurements and the low likelihood of rapid shifts in the coming weeks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions