Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Plaid Cymru an 80.5% implied probability of winning the most seats in the 2026 Senedd election, reflecting sustained nationalist sentiment and Welsh Labour's weakened position after First Minister Eluned Morgan's August appointment amid party scandals and a failed no-confidence vote against predecessor Vaughan Gething. Reform UK at 15% gains traction from its national surge in the July 2024 UK general election, where it polled strongly in Wales despite the proportional representation system favoring Plaid's regional strongholds. Welsh Labour's drop to 5% signals voter fatigue after 25 years governing, with Conservatives, Greens, and Liberal Democrats negligible. No major developments in the past 30 days; recent polls show a tighter race among top parties, diverging from this trader pricing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於威爾斯議會選舉獲勝者
威爾斯議會選舉獲勝者
普萊德黨 80%
改革英國 15%
威爾斯工黨 4.3%
威爾士保守黨 <1%
$18,970 交易量
$18,970 交易量
May 7, 2026
威爾斯工黨
4%
普萊德黨
80%
威爾士保守黨
<1%
改革英國
15%
威爾士自由民主黨
<1%
威爾斯綠黨
<1%
普萊德黨 80%
改革英國 15%
威爾斯工黨 4.3%
威爾士保守黨 <1%
$18,970 交易量
$18,970 交易量
May 7, 2026
威爾斯工黨
$3,326 交易量
4%
普萊德黨
$5,722 交易量
80%
威爾士保守黨
$2,492 交易量
<1%
改革英國
$3,859 交易量
15%
威爾士自由民主黨
$1,865 交易量
<1%
威爾斯綠黨
$1,706 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Plaid Cymru an 80.5% implied probability of winning the most seats in the 2026 Senedd election, reflecting sustained nationalist sentiment and Welsh Labour's weakened position after First Minister Eluned Morgan's August appointment amid party scandals and a failed no-confidence vote against predecessor Vaughan Gething. Reform UK at 15% gains traction from its national surge in the July 2024 UK general election, where it polled strongly in Wales despite the proportional representation system favoring Plaid's regional strongholds. Welsh Labour's drop to 5% signals voter fatigue after 25 years governing, with Conservatives, Greens, and Liberal Democrats negligible. No major developments in the past 30 days; recent polls show a tighter race among top parties, diverging from this trader pricing.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
市場開放時間： Dec 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ET
交易量
$18,970結束日期
May 7, 2026市場開放時間
Dec 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Plaid Cymru an 80.5% implied probability of winning the most seats in the 2026 Senedd election, reflecting sustained nationalist sentiment and Welsh Labour's weakened position after First Minister Eluned Morgan's August appointment amid party scandals and a failed no-confidence vote against predecessor Vaughan Gething. Reform UK at 15% gains traction from its national surge in the July 2024 UK general election, where it polled strongly in Wales despite the proportional representation system favoring Plaid's regional strongholds. Welsh Labour's drop to 5% signals voter fatigue after 25 years governing, with Conservatives, Greens, and Liberal Democrats negligible. No major developments in the past 30 days; recent polls show a tighter race among top parties, diverging from this trader pricing.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
交易量
$18,970結束日期
May 7, 2026市場開放時間
Dec 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Plaid Cymru an 80.5% implied probability of winning the most seats in the 2026 Senedd election, reflecting sustained nationalist sentiment and Welsh Labour's weakened position after First Minister Eluned Morgan's August appointment amid party scandals and a failed no-confidence vote against predecessor Vaughan Gething. Reform UK at 15% gains traction from its national surge in the July 2024 UK general election, where it polled strongly in Wales despite the proportional representation system favoring Plaid's regional strongholds. Welsh Labour's drop to 5% signals voter fatigue after 25 years governing, with Conservatives, Greens, and Liberal Democrats negligible. No major developments in the past 30 days; recent polls show a tighter race among top parties, diverging from this trader pricing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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