Amid escalating US-Iran hostilities in the ongoing 2026 conflict, Iranian forces imposed a selective closure of the Strait of Hormuz starting late February, restricting transits primarily to Iranian-linked vessels and prompting non-Iranian commercial shipping to halt amid attack risks and warnings. Ship-tracking data from Kpler and MarineTraffic through April 14 shows daily averages of 7-26 vessels—far below pre-war norms of 100-150—driving trader consensus toward 0-10 (37%) and 10-20 (19.3%) outcomes for end-April averages. Recent US naval blockade of Iranian ports, failed weekend peace talks in Pakistan, and Tehran's April 15 proposal for safe Omani-side passage have failed to restore traffic, with military posturing and mutual threats sustaining uncertainty ahead of potential further airstrikes or diplomacy.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0-10 37%
10-20 17.8%
60+ 13%
30-40 8.3%
$104,205 交易量
$104,205 交易量
2026-04-30
0-10
37%
10-20
18%
20-30
8%
30-40
8%
40-50
7%
50-60
8%
60+
13%
0-10 37%
10-20 17.8%
60+ 13%
30-40 8.3%
$104,205 交易量
$104,205 交易量
2026-04-30
0-10
$25,608 交易量
37%
10-20
$11,198 交易量
18%
20-30
$10,247 交易量
8%
30-40
$8,902 交易量
8%
40-50
$8,141 交易量
7%
50-60
$10,687 交易量
8%
60+
$29,423 交易量
13%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid escalating US-Iran hostilities in the ongoing 2026 conflict, Iranian forces imposed a selective closure of the Strait of Hormuz starting late February, restricting transits primarily to Iranian-linked vessels and prompting non-Iranian commercial shipping to halt amid attack risks and warnings. Ship-tracking data from Kpler and MarineTraffic through April 14 shows daily averages of 7-26 vessels—far below pre-war norms of 100-150—driving trader consensus toward 0-10 (37%) and 10-20 (19.3%) outcomes for end-April averages. Recent US naval blockade of Iranian ports, failed weekend peace talks in Pakistan, and Tehran's April 15 proposal for safe Omani-side passage have failed to restore traffic, with military posturing and mutual threats sustaining uncertainty ahead of potential further airstrikes or diplomacy.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 1:00 PM ET
交易量
$104,205结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 1:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid escalating US-Iran hostilities in the ongoing 2026 conflict, Iranian forces imposed a selective closure of the Strait of Hormuz starting late February, restricting transits primarily to Iranian-linked vessels and prompting non-Iranian commercial shipping to halt amid attack risks and warnings. Ship-tracking data from Kpler and MarineTraffic through April 14 shows daily averages of 7-26 vessels—far below pre-war norms of 100-150—driving trader consensus toward 0-10 (37%) and 10-20 (19.3%) outcomes for end-April averages. Recent US naval blockade of Iranian ports, failed weekend peace talks in Pakistan, and Tehran's April 15 proposal for safe Omani-side passage have failed to restore traffic, with military posturing and mutual threats sustaining uncertainty ahead of potential further airstrikes or diplomacy.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$104,205结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 1:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amid escalating US-Iran hostilities in the ongoing 2026 conflict, Iranian forces imposed a selective closure of the Strait of Hormuz starting late February, restricting transits primarily to Iranian-linked vessels and prompting non-Iranian commercial shipping to halt amid attack risks and warnings. Ship-tracking data from Kpler and MarineTraffic through April 14 shows daily averages of 7-26 vessels—far below pre-war norms of 100-150—driving trader consensus toward 0-10 (37%) and 10-20 (19.3%) outcomes for end-April averages. Recent US naval blockade of Iranian ports, failed weekend peace talks in Pakistan, and Tehran's April 15 proposal for safe Omani-side passage have failed to restore traffic, with military posturing and mutual threats sustaining uncertainty ahead of potential further airstrikes or diplomacy.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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