Incumbent Democrat John Garamendi and Republican Rudy Recile advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 8th congressional district, with Garamendi securing over 54% of the vote. The district's strong Democratic baseline—reflected in voter registration advantages exceeding 30 points and recent presidential results—anchors trader pricing across multiple margin buckets near 37% each, alongside Republican win odds at 32%. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the incumbent's long tenure and limited Republican infrastructure. With roughly six weeks until the November general election, the tight distribution across Democrat victory margins from 25-55% captures expectations of a decisive but not overwhelming result, with limited catalysts yet to emerge that could widen separation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于民主党 30-35% 37.4%
民主党55%及以上 37.3%
共和党获胜 33.9%
民主党领先15-25% 32.7%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党55%及以上
37%
民主党 50-55%
38%
民主党45-50%
29%
民主党 40-45%
24%
民主党 35-40%
32%
民主党 30-35%
37%
民主党 25-30%
38%
民主党领先15-25%
33%
民主党 0-15%
23%
共和党获胜
34%
民主党 30-35% 37.4%
民主党55%及以上 37.3%
共和党获胜 33.9%
民主党领先15-25% 32.7%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党55%及以上
$344 交易量
37%
民主党 50-55%
$314 交易量
38%
民主党45-50%
$318 交易量
29%
民主党 40-45%
$314 交易量
24%
民主党 35-40%
$394 交易量
32%
民主党 30-35%
$344 交易量
37%
民主党 25-30%
$344 交易量
38%
民主党领先15-25%
$314 交易量
33%
民主党 0-15%
$394 交易量
23%
共和党获胜
$304 交易量
34%
The 2026 CA-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat John Garamendi and Republican Rudy Recile advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 8th congressional district, with Garamendi securing over 54% of the vote. The district's strong Democratic baseline—reflected in voter registration advantages exceeding 30 points and recent presidential results—anchors trader pricing across multiple margin buckets near 37% each, alongside Republican win odds at 32%. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the incumbent's long tenure and limited Republican infrastructure. With roughly six weeks until the November general election, the tight distribution across Democrat victory margins from 25-55% captures expectations of a decisive but not overwhelming result, with limited catalysts yet to emerge that could widen separation.
The 2026 CA-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ET
交易量
$3,386结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ETThe 2026 CA-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat John Garamendi and Republican Rudy Recile advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 8th congressional district, with Garamendi securing over 54% of the vote. The district's strong Democratic baseline—reflected in voter registration advantages exceeding 30 points and recent presidential results—anchors trader pricing across multiple margin buckets near 37% each, alongside Republican win odds at 32%. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the incumbent's long tenure and limited Republican infrastructure. With roughly six weeks until the November general election, the tight distribution across Democrat victory margins from 25-55% captures expectations of a decisive but not overwhelming result, with limited catalysts yet to emerge that could widen separation.
The 2026 CA-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$3,386结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ETIncumbent Democrat John Garamendi and Republican Rudy Recile advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 8th congressional district, with Garamendi securing over 54% of the vote. The district's strong Democratic baseline—reflected in voter registration advantages exceeding 30 points and recent presidential results—anchors trader pricing across multiple margin buckets near 37% each, alongside Republican win odds at 32%. Forecasters rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, consistent with the incumbent's long tenure and limited Republican infrastructure. With roughly six weeks until the November general election, the tight distribution across Democrat victory margins from 25-55% captures expectations of a decisive but not overwhelming result, with limited catalysts yet to emerge that could widen separation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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