**Recent polling shows Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed holding a narrow statewide lead over Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan’s open U.S. Senate race, with averages placing El-Sayed around 47% to Rogers’ 44-45% among likely voters.** Grand Traverse County, a competitive northern Michigan swing area that narrowly backed Republicans in the 2024 presidential and Senate contests, features urban pockets like Traverse City that leaned Democratic alongside more conservative townships. This mix, combined with the overall tight statewide contest and El-Sayed’s primary performance in liberal-leaning and college-adjacent areas, supports trader consensus favoring him for the county win at 59.5% implied probability versus Rogers at 36.5%. The race remains close because small shifts in turnout among independents, suburban women, or rural voters could flip the county outcome, as seen in recent narrow margins. Upcoming debates, final fundraising pushes, or late campaign events before November 3 could widen separation if one candidate gains ground on economic or local issues.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
阿卜杜勒·埃尔-萨耶德（民主党）
62%
迈克·罗杰斯（共和党）
37%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
阿卜杜勒·埃尔-萨耶德（民主党）
$66 交易量
62%
迈克·罗杰斯（共和党）
$898 交易量
37%
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Grand Traverse County in the general election for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Grand Traverse County.**Recent polling shows Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed holding a narrow statewide lead over Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan’s open U.S. Senate race, with averages placing El-Sayed around 47% to Rogers’ 44-45% among likely voters.** Grand Traverse County, a competitive northern Michigan swing area that narrowly backed Republicans in the 2024 presidential and Senate contests, features urban pockets like Traverse City that leaned Democratic alongside more conservative townships. This mix, combined with the overall tight statewide contest and El-Sayed’s primary performance in liberal-leaning and college-adjacent areas, supports trader consensus favoring him for the county win at 59.5% implied probability versus Rogers at 36.5%.
The race remains close because small shifts in turnout among independents, suburban women, or rural voters could flip the county outcome, as seen in recent narrow margins. Upcoming debates, final fundraising pushes, or late campaign events before November 3 could widen separation if one candidate gains ground on economic or local issues.
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Grand Traverse County in the general election for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Grand Traverse County.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Grand Traverse County.
市场开放时间： Sep 22, 2026, 12:22 PM ET
交易量
$964结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Sep 22, 2026, 12:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Grand Traverse County in the general election for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Grand Traverse County.**Recent polling shows Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed holding a narrow statewide lead over Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan’s open U.S. Senate race, with averages placing El-Sayed around 47% to Rogers’ 44-45% among likely voters.** Grand Traverse County, a competitive northern Michigan swing area that narrowly backed Republicans in the 2024 presidential and Senate contests, features urban pockets like Traverse City that leaned Democratic alongside more conservative townships. This mix, combined with the overall tight statewide contest and El-Sayed’s primary performance in liberal-leaning and college-adjacent areas, supports trader consensus favoring him for the county win at 59.5% implied probability versus Rogers at 36.5%.
The race remains close because small shifts in turnout among independents, suburban women, or rural voters could flip the county outcome, as seen in recent narrow margins. Upcoming debates, final fundraising pushes, or late campaign events before November 3 could widen separation if one candidate gains ground on economic or local issues.
This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Grand Traverse County in the general election for United States Senator from Michigan, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Grand Traverse County.
The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Michigan, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Grand Traverse County.
交易量
$964结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Sep 22, 2026, 12:22 PM ET**Recent polling shows Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed holding a narrow statewide lead over Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan’s open U.S. Senate race, with averages placing El-Sayed around 47% to Rogers’ 44-45% among likely voters.** Grand Traverse County, a competitive northern Michigan swing area that narrowly backed Republicans in the 2024 presidential and Senate contests, features urban pockets like Traverse City that leaned Democratic alongside more conservative townships. This mix, combined with the overall tight statewide contest and El-Sayed’s primary performance in liberal-leaning and college-adjacent areas, supports trader consensus favoring him for the county win at 59.5% implied probability versus Rogers at 36.5%. The race remains close because small shifts in turnout among independents, suburban women, or rural voters could flip the county outcome, as seen in recent narrow margins. Upcoming debates, final fundraising pushes, or late campaign events before November 3 could widen separation if one candidate gains ground on economic or local issues.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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