Latest NOAA and NWS ensemble forecasts for Chicago on August 14 indicate a daily high centered near 80°F, driving the market's tight clustering around the 78–81°F outcomes with combined implied probability exceeding 70%. A moderating lake breeze off Lake Michigan and residual effects from a weak frontal passage are the main factors capping potential warmth below seasonal normals near 83°F, while variable afternoon cloud cover and wind speeds create the narrow spread among leading bins. Model consensus shows limited divergence in peak timing, keeping lower and higher extremes at single-digit probabilities. Updated short-range guidance and real-time observations tomorrow morning will provide the final inputs for resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于芝加哥8月14日最高气温？
芝加哥8月14日最高气温？
80-81°F 37%
78-79°F 34%
82-83°F 21%
76-77°F 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-14
73°F or below
1%
74-75°F
4%
76-77°F
10%
78-79°F
34%
80-81°F
37%
82-83°F
21%
84-85°F
6%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 37%
78-79°F 34%
82-83°F 21%
76-77°F 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-14
73°F or below
$29 交易量
1%
74-75°F
$125 交易量
4%
76-77°F
$146 交易量
10%
78-79°F
$812 交易量
34%
80-81°F
$123 交易量
37%
82-83°F
$63 交易量
21%
84-85°F
$153 交易量
6%
86-87°F
$103 交易量
1%
88-89°F
$80 交易量
<1%
90-91°F
$12 交易量
<1%
92°F or higher
$12 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest NOAA and NWS ensemble forecasts for Chicago on August 14 indicate a daily high centered near 80°F, driving the market's tight clustering around the 78–81°F outcomes with combined implied probability exceeding 70%. A moderating lake breeze off Lake Michigan and residual effects from a weak frontal passage are the main factors capping potential warmth below seasonal normals near 83°F, while variable afternoon cloud cover and wind speeds create the narrow spread among leading bins. Model consensus shows limited divergence in peak timing, keeping lower and higher extremes at single-digit probabilities. Updated short-range guidance and real-time observations tomorrow morning will provide the final inputs for resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
交易量
$1,658结束日期
2026-08-14市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest NOAA and NWS ensemble forecasts for Chicago on August 14 indicate a daily high centered near 80°F, driving the market's tight clustering around the 78–81°F outcomes with combined implied probability exceeding 70%. A moderating lake breeze off Lake Michigan and residual effects from a weak frontal passage are the main factors capping potential warmth below seasonal normals near 83°F, while variable afternoon cloud cover and wind speeds create the narrow spread among leading bins. Model consensus shows limited divergence in peak timing, keeping lower and higher extremes at single-digit probabilities. Updated short-range guidance and real-time observations tomorrow morning will provide the final inputs for resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,658结束日期
2026-08-14市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 PM ETLatest NOAA and NWS ensemble forecasts for Chicago on August 14 indicate a daily high centered near 80°F, driving the market's tight clustering around the 78–81°F outcomes with combined implied probability exceeding 70%. A moderating lake breeze off Lake Michigan and residual effects from a weak frontal passage are the main factors capping potential warmth below seasonal normals near 83°F, while variable afternoon cloud cover and wind speeds create the narrow spread among leading bins. Model consensus shows limited divergence in peak timing, keeping lower and higher extremes at single-digit probabilities. Updated short-range guidance and real-time observations tomorrow morning will provide the final inputs for resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题