Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a 19°C high temperature in Istanbul on April 25, 2026, with 100% implied probability, driven by finalized NOAA hourly observations at Istanbul Airport (LTFM)—the official resolution source—which recorded a peak of 19°C under clear skies, light southerly winds of 5-10 km/h, and low humidity around 40-50%. Stable high-pressure patterns and moderate solar insolation limited further warming beyond this midday maximum, consistent with late-April climatology averaging 16-18°C and following April 24's 18°C high. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-finalization data revisions from instrument calibration errors or quality control audits by NOAA, though such adjustments are infrequent for surface temperature records. Upcoming MGM or ECMWF recaps may provide additional context but won't alter resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 25?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 25?
19°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$66,761 交易量
$66,761 交易量
2026-04-25
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
Yes
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
19°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$66,761 交易量
$66,761 交易量
2026-04-25
12°C or below
$746 交易量
No
13°C
$1,965 交易量
No
14°C
$2,052 交易量
No
15°C
$2,914 交易量
No
16°C
$3,672 交易量
No
17°C
$3,669 交易量
No
18°C
$4,809 交易量
No
19°C
$17,792 交易量
Yes
20°C
$10,412 交易量
No
21°C
$9,338 交易量
No
22°C or higher
$9,392 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a 19°C high temperature in Istanbul on April 25, 2026, with 100% implied probability, driven by finalized NOAA hourly observations at Istanbul Airport (LTFM)—the official resolution source—which recorded a peak of 19°C under clear skies, light southerly winds of 5-10 km/h, and low humidity around 40-50%. Stable high-pressure patterns and moderate solar insolation limited further warming beyond this midday maximum, consistent with late-April climatology averaging 16-18°C and following April 24's 18°C high. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-finalization data revisions from instrument calibration errors or quality control audits by NOAA, though such adjustments are infrequent for surface temperature records. Upcoming MGM or ECMWF recaps may provide additional context but won't alter resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 23, 2026, 12:40 AM ET
交易量
$66,761结束日期
2026-04-25市场开放时间
Apr 23, 2026, 12:40 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a 19°C high temperature in Istanbul on April 25, 2026, with 100% implied probability, driven by finalized NOAA hourly observations at Istanbul Airport (LTFM)—the official resolution source—which recorded a peak of 19°C under clear skies, light southerly winds of 5-10 km/h, and low humidity around 40-50%. Stable high-pressure patterns and moderate solar insolation limited further warming beyond this midday maximum, consistent with late-April climatology averaging 16-18°C and following April 24's 18°C high. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-finalization data revisions from instrument calibration errors or quality control audits by NOAA, though such adjustments are infrequent for surface temperature records. Upcoming MGM or ECMWF recaps may provide additional context but won't alter resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$66,761结束日期
2026-04-25市场开放时间
Apr 23, 2026, 12:40 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a 19°C high temperature in Istanbul on April 25, 2026, with 100% implied probability, driven by finalized NOAA hourly observations at Istanbul Airport (LTFM)—the official resolution source—which recorded a peak of 19°C under clear skies, light southerly winds of 5-10 km/h, and low humidity around 40-50%. Stable high-pressure patterns and moderate solar insolation limited further warming beyond this midday maximum, consistent with late-April climatology averaging 16-18°C and following April 24's 18°C high. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-finalization data revisions from instrument calibration errors or quality control audits by NOAA, though such adjustments are infrequent for surface temperature records. Upcoming MGM or ECMWF recaps may provide additional context but won't alter resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题