Strong model consensus from official forecasts and ensemble runs projects daily maximum temperatures of 30–32°C in Jinan on August 15, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure and southerly flow typical of mid-August climatology in Shandong. Multiple sources, including AccuWeather, Met Office, and regional guidance, align on partly cloudy to thundery conditions with insufficient cloud cover or precipitation to suppress highs below the 26°C threshold. This produces the 99.6% market-implied probability for 26°C or higher. A realistic challenge would require an abrupt, unforecasted cold front or unusually widespread heavy rain to enhance evaporative cooling, though current data show low likelihood of such deviation before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月15日济南气温最高？
8月15日济南气温最高？
26°C or higher 99.6%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
最新
最新
2026-08-15
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
100%
26°C or higher 99.6%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
最新
最新
2026-08-15
16°C or below
$232 交易量
<1%
17°C
$232 交易量
<1%
18°C
$232 交易量
<1%
19°C
$232 交易量
<1%
20°C
$222 交易量
<1%
21°C
$152 交易量
<1%
22°C
$152 交易量
1%
23°C
$152 交易量
<1%
24°C
$152 交易量
<1%
25°C
$151 交易量
<1%
26°C or higher
$568 交易量
100%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong model consensus from official forecasts and ensemble runs projects daily maximum temperatures of 30–32°C in Jinan on August 15, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure and southerly flow typical of mid-August climatology in Shandong. Multiple sources, including AccuWeather, Met Office, and regional guidance, align on partly cloudy to thundery conditions with insufficient cloud cover or precipitation to suppress highs below the 26°C threshold. This produces the 99.6% market-implied probability for 26°C or higher. A realistic challenge would require an abrupt, unforecasted cold front or unusually widespread heavy rain to enhance evaporative cooling, though current data show low likelihood of such deviation before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
交易量
$2,475结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong model consensus from official forecasts and ensemble runs projects daily maximum temperatures of 30–32°C in Jinan on August 15, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure and southerly flow typical of mid-August climatology in Shandong. Multiple sources, including AccuWeather, Met Office, and regional guidance, align on partly cloudy to thundery conditions with insufficient cloud cover or precipitation to suppress highs below the 26°C threshold. This produces the 99.6% market-implied probability for 26°C or higher. A realistic challenge would require an abrupt, unforecasted cold front or unusually widespread heavy rain to enhance evaporative cooling, though current data show low likelihood of such deviation before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,475结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ETStrong model consensus from official forecasts and ensemble runs projects daily maximum temperatures of 30–32°C in Jinan on August 15, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure and southerly flow typical of mid-August climatology in Shandong. Multiple sources, including AccuWeather, Met Office, and regional guidance, align on partly cloudy to thundery conditions with insufficient cloud cover or precipitation to suppress highs below the 26°C threshold. This produces the 99.6% market-implied probability for 26°C or higher. A realistic challenge would require an abrupt, unforecasted cold front or unusually widespread heavy rain to enhance evaporative cooling, though current data show low likelihood of such deviation before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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