Official forecasts from the Met Office and ensemble models indicate a maximum of 21–22 °C for London on 22 August under northerly flow and high pressure, with sunny intervals and minimal cloud cover. This setup follows mid-August heat peaks above 35 °C that have since yielded to cooler maritime air and scattered showers, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the long-term August average. Light northerly winds and dry conditions limit afternoon warming while clear skies overnight support radiative cooling. Latest model runs show little spread around these values, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 21–22 °C outcomes and modest probabilities for 23 °C or higher. Updated guidance through the evening of 21 August will be the next key input before resolution.