Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering in latest forecast models, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles projecting Madrid's highest temperature on April 4 at 22-24°C under a mild high-pressure ridge bringing clear skies and light northerly winds, driving the close contest between 24°C (33.5% implied probability) and 23°C (28.5%). AEMET's official outlook edges higher toward 26°C with ample sunshine boosting daytime heating at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport station, the market's resolution source, while AccuWeather aligns at around 24°C. Differentiating factors include minor model spreads on peak afternoon timing, potential thin cloud intrusions, and urban heat effects amid spring's climatological average of 18-19°C. Watch AEMET's evening update for shifts before observations finalize tomorrow.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Madrid on April 4?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 4?
24°C 37%
23°C 27%
25°C 15%
22°C 13%
$17,879 交易量
$17,879 交易量
2026-04-04
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
5%
22°C
13%
23°C
27%
24°C
37%
25°C
15%
26°C
3%
27°C or higher
1%
24°C 37%
23°C 27%
25°C 15%
22°C 13%
$17,879 交易量
$17,879 交易量
2026-04-04
17°C or below
$2,260 交易量
<1%
18°C
$1,367 交易量
<1%
19°C
$1,224 交易量
<1%
20°C
$1,235 交易量
1%
21°C
$1,490 交易量
5%
22°C
$1,783 交易量
13%
23°C
$1,928 交易量
27%
24°C
$1,888 交易量
37%
25°C
$1,847 交易量
15%
26°C
$1,468 交易量
3%
27°C or higher
$1,394 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering in latest forecast models, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles projecting Madrid's highest temperature on April 4 at 22-24°C under a mild high-pressure ridge bringing clear skies and light northerly winds, driving the close contest between 24°C (33.5% implied probability) and 23°C (28.5%). AEMET's official outlook edges higher toward 26°C with ample sunshine boosting daytime heating at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport station, the market's resolution source, while AccuWeather aligns at around 24°C. Differentiating factors include minor model spreads on peak afternoon timing, potential thin cloud intrusions, and urban heat effects amid spring's climatological average of 18-19°C. Watch AEMET's evening update for shifts before observations finalize tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Mar 29, 2026, 4:22 PM ET
交易量
$17,879结束日期
2026-04-04市场开放时间
Mar 29, 2026, 4:22 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering in latest forecast models, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles projecting Madrid's highest temperature on April 4 at 22-24°C under a mild high-pressure ridge bringing clear skies and light northerly winds, driving the close contest between 24°C (33.5% implied probability) and 23°C (28.5%). AEMET's official outlook edges higher toward 26°C with ample sunshine boosting daytime heating at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport station, the market's resolution source, while AccuWeather aligns at around 24°C. Differentiating factors include minor model spreads on peak afternoon timing, potential thin cloud intrusions, and urban heat effects amid spring's climatological average of 18-19°C. Watch AEMET's evening update for shifts before observations finalize tomorrow.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$17,879结束日期
2026-04-04市场开放时间
Mar 29, 2026, 4:22 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering in latest forecast models, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles projecting Madrid's highest temperature on April 4 at 22-24°C under a mild high-pressure ridge bringing clear skies and light northerly winds, driving the close contest between 24°C (33.5% implied probability) and 23°C (28.5%). AEMET's official outlook edges higher toward 26°C with ample sunshine boosting daytime heating at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport station, the market's resolution source, while AccuWeather aligns at around 24°C. Differentiating factors include minor model spreads on peak afternoon timing, potential thin cloud intrusions, and urban heat effects amid spring's climatological average of 18-19°C. Watch AEMET's evening update for shifts before observations finalize tomorrow.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题