Recent model consensus from sources like GFS points to clear skies, light southerly or southwesterly flow, and a strong high-pressure ridge sustaining daytime heating across central Spain, pushing Madrid's September 3 maximum into the upper 30s °C. Official and ensemble guidance clusters afternoon peaks near 37–39 °C, with minor differences arising from exact timing of the thermal maximum, boundary-layer mixing depth, and subtle variations in low-level advection. Historical climatology for early September supports values near 33–34 °C, so the current warm anomaly reflects the persistent ridge rather than typical conditions. With resolution hinging on the single daily maximum reading, traders weigh the narrow spread between 38 °C and 39 °C outcomes against the possibility of a slightly cooler or warmer verification depending on the final observed peak.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月3日马德里气温最高？
9月3日马德里气温最高？
38°C 48%
39°C 44%
37°C 6%
40°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-09-03
33°C or below
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
3%
36°C
2%
37°C
6%
38°C
48%
39°C
44%
40°C
5%
41°C
1%
42°C
1%
43°C or higher
<1%
38°C 48%
39°C 44%
37°C 6%
40°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-09-03
33°C or below
$128 交易量
<1%
34°C
$153 交易量
<1%
35°C
$411 交易量
3%
36°C
$435 交易量
2%
37°C
$307 交易量
6%
38°C
$669 交易量
48%
39°C
$398 交易量
44%
40°C
$121 交易量
5%
41°C
$89 交易量
1%
42°C
$122 交易量
1%
43°C or higher
$113 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like GFS points to clear skies, light southerly or southwesterly flow, and a strong high-pressure ridge sustaining daytime heating across central Spain, pushing Madrid's September 3 maximum into the upper 30s °C. Official and ensemble guidance clusters afternoon peaks near 37–39 °C, with minor differences arising from exact timing of the thermal maximum, boundary-layer mixing depth, and subtle variations in low-level advection. Historical climatology for early September supports values near 33–34 °C, so the current warm anomaly reflects the persistent ridge rather than typical conditions. With resolution hinging on the single daily maximum reading, traders weigh the narrow spread between 38 °C and 39 °C outcomes against the possibility of a slightly cooler or warmer verification depending on the final observed peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$2,948结束日期
2026-09-03市场开放时间
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like GFS points to clear skies, light southerly or southwesterly flow, and a strong high-pressure ridge sustaining daytime heating across central Spain, pushing Madrid's September 3 maximum into the upper 30s °C. Official and ensemble guidance clusters afternoon peaks near 37–39 °C, with minor differences arising from exact timing of the thermal maximum, boundary-layer mixing depth, and subtle variations in low-level advection. Historical climatology for early September supports values near 33–34 °C, so the current warm anomaly reflects the persistent ridge rather than typical conditions. With resolution hinging on the single daily maximum reading, traders weigh the narrow spread between 38 °C and 39 °C outcomes against the possibility of a slightly cooler or warmer verification depending on the final observed peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,948结束日期
2026-09-03市场开放时间
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETRecent model consensus from sources like GFS points to clear skies, light southerly or southwesterly flow, and a strong high-pressure ridge sustaining daytime heating across central Spain, pushing Madrid's September 3 maximum into the upper 30s °C. Official and ensemble guidance clusters afternoon peaks near 37–39 °C, with minor differences arising from exact timing of the thermal maximum, boundary-layer mixing depth, and subtle variations in low-level advection. Historical climatology for early September supports values near 33–34 °C, so the current warm anomaly reflects the persistent ridge rather than typical conditions. With resolution hinging on the single daily maximum reading, traders weigh the narrow spread between 38 °C and 39 °C outcomes against the possibility of a slightly cooler or warmer verification depending on the final observed peak.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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