Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs shows stable high pressure and light easterly winds over northern Italy, supporting daytime maxima of 24–26 °C on 12 September with minimal cloud cover and dry conditions. These values sit slightly above the long-term September average of ~22 °C, reflecting ongoing warmth from recent clear skies and subsidence. Traders have priced 25 °C and 26 °C as the dominant outcomes (combined >88 % implied probability) because ensemble spreads remain narrow and no frontal systems or stronger advection are expected before resolution. Minor model differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of peak heating explain the residual probability on 24 °C or 27 °C, while values outside 23–28 °C remain heavily discounted given current atmospheric stability. Updated short-range guidance tomorrow morning will provide the final observational anchor for market resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月12日米兰的最高温度？
9月12日米兰的最高温度？
26°C 52%
25°C 41%
27°C 6%
24°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-09-12
18°C或以下
<1%
19°C
<1%
20℃
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
5%
25°C
41%
26°C
52%
27°C
6%
28°C或更高
1%
26°C 52%
25°C 41%
27°C 6%
24°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-09-12
18°C或以下
$1,257 交易量
<1%
19°C
$349 交易量
<1%
20℃
$425 交易量
<1%
21°C
$210 交易量
<1%
22°C
$21 交易量
<1%
23°C
$184 交易量
2%
24°C
$486 交易量
5%
25°C
$2,109 交易量
41%
26°C
$1,325 交易量
52%
27°C
$362 交易量
6%
28°C或更高
$261 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs shows stable high pressure and light easterly winds over northern Italy, supporting daytime maxima of 24–26 °C on 12 September with minimal cloud cover and dry conditions. These values sit slightly above the long-term September average of ~22 °C, reflecting ongoing warmth from recent clear skies and subsidence. Traders have priced 25 °C and 26 °C as the dominant outcomes (combined >88 % implied probability) because ensemble spreads remain narrow and no frontal systems or stronger advection are expected before resolution. Minor model differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of peak heating explain the residual probability on 24 °C or 27 °C, while values outside 23–28 °C remain heavily discounted given current atmospheric stability. Updated short-range guidance tomorrow morning will provide the final observational anchor for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$6,475结束日期
2026-09-12市场开放时间
Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs shows stable high pressure and light easterly winds over northern Italy, supporting daytime maxima of 24–26 °C on 12 September with minimal cloud cover and dry conditions. These values sit slightly above the long-term September average of ~22 °C, reflecting ongoing warmth from recent clear skies and subsidence. Traders have priced 25 °C and 26 °C as the dominant outcomes (combined >88 % implied probability) because ensemble spreads remain narrow and no frontal systems or stronger advection are expected before resolution. Minor model differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of peak heating explain the residual probability on 24 °C or 27 °C, while values outside 23–28 °C remain heavily discounted given current atmospheric stability. Updated short-range guidance tomorrow morning will provide the final observational anchor for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$6,475结束日期
2026-09-12市场开放时间
Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs shows stable high pressure and light easterly winds over northern Italy, supporting daytime maxima of 24–26 °C on 12 September with minimal cloud cover and dry conditions. These values sit slightly above the long-term September average of ~22 °C, reflecting ongoing warmth from recent clear skies and subsidence. Traders have priced 25 °C and 26 °C as the dominant outcomes (combined >88 % implied probability) because ensemble spreads remain narrow and no frontal systems or stronger advection are expected before resolution. Minor model differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of peak heating explain the residual probability on 24 °C or 27 °C, while values outside 23–28 °C remain heavily discounted given current atmospheric stability. Updated short-range guidance tomorrow morning will provide the final observational anchor for market resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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