Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 50-51°F in New York City on April 28, driven by finalized observations from the LaGuardia Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground data—which recorded the minimum in that precise range. Mild southerly flow and urban heat retention under partly cloudy skies overnight prevented sharper cooling, aligning with National Weather Service model consensus from the prior day forecasting lows near 50°F amid a broader warm spring pattern. Late April climatology supports this, with historical Central Park analogs averaging 48°F lows. Realistic challenges are minimal post-finalization, though rare data audits could prompt revisions; otherwise, resolution appears certain.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4月28日纽约市最低气温？
4月28日纽约市最低气温？
50-51°F 100.0%
52-53°F 1.0%
39°F或更低 <1%
40-41°F <1%
$28,173 交易量
$28,173 交易量
2026-04-28
39°F或更低
否
40-41°F
否
42-43°F
否
44-45°F
否
46-47°F
否
48-49°F
否
50-51°F
是
52-53°F
否
54-55°F
否
56-57°F
否
58°F或更高
否
50-51°F 100.0%
52-53°F 1.0%
39°F或更低 <1%
40-41°F <1%
$28,173 交易量
$28,173 交易量
2026-04-28
39°F或更低
$1,194 交易量
否
40-41°F
$905 交易量
否
42-43°F
$1,585 交易量
否
44-45°F
$1,773 交易量
否
46-47°F
$8,679 交易量
否
48-49°F
$1,704 交易量
否
50-51°F
$3,217 交易量
是
52-53°F
$2,483 交易量
否
54-55°F
$988 交易量
否
56-57°F
$508 交易量
否
58°F或更高
$5,137 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 50-51°F in New York City on April 28, driven by finalized observations from the LaGuardia Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground data—which recorded the minimum in that precise range. Mild southerly flow and urban heat retention under partly cloudy skies overnight prevented sharper cooling, aligning with National Weather Service model consensus from the prior day forecasting lows near 50°F amid a broader warm spring pattern. Late April climatology supports this, with historical Central Park analogs averaging 48°F lows. Realistic challenges are minimal post-finalization, though rare data audits could prompt revisions; otherwise, resolution appears certain.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 26, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$28,173结束日期
2026-04-28市场开放时间
Apr 26, 2026, 12:02 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 50-51°F in New York City on April 28, driven by finalized observations from the LaGuardia Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground data—which recorded the minimum in that precise range. Mild southerly flow and urban heat retention under partly cloudy skies overnight prevented sharper cooling, aligning with National Weather Service model consensus from the prior day forecasting lows near 50°F amid a broader warm spring pattern. Late April climatology supports this, with historical Central Park analogs averaging 48°F lows. Realistic challenges are minimal post-finalization, though rare data audits could prompt revisions; otherwise, resolution appears certain.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$28,173结束日期
2026-04-28市场开放时间
Apr 26, 2026, 12:02 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a lowest temperature of 50-51°F in New York City on April 28, driven by finalized observations from the LaGuardia Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground data—which recorded the minimum in that precise range. Mild southerly flow and urban heat retention under partly cloudy skies overnight prevented sharper cooling, aligning with National Weather Service model consensus from the prior day forecasting lows near 50°F amid a broader warm spring pattern. Late April climatology supports this, with historical Central Park analogs averaging 48°F lows. Realistic challenges are minimal post-finalization, though rare data audits could prompt revisions; otherwise, resolution appears certain.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题