Persistent high pressure and light westerly Mediterranean flow are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling over Tel Aviv, keeping overnight lows anchored near the August climatological average of 23–26°C. Short-range guidance from models such as those used by the Israel Meteorological Service shows consensus for minima in the 24–26°C band under mostly clear skies and moderate humidity, with minor spreads arising from uncertainties in boundary-layer moisture and sea-breeze timing. Recent observations and ensemble runs have not introduced signals for stronger cooling to 22°C or below, nor for warmer conditions above 27°C, resulting in tightly clustered market-implied probabilities. Resolution hinges on the official minimum reading, with updated forecasts expected in the next 48 hours before the August 26 overnight period.