Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects close alignment with the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast for Tokyo's April 29 low temperature near 14–15°C, driven by persistent cloud cover and scattered showers limiting nocturnal radiative cooling overnight. Early morning observations hovered around 16–17°C, with models showing minimal further drop due to urban heat island effects in central Tokyo and light southerly winds trapping warmth. Differentiating 15°C (26.5% implied probability) from 14°C (22%) hinges on subtle variations in afternoon cloud trends and evening precipitation—thicker overcast favors the higher low, while brief clearing could enable a 1°C dip. JMA hourly updates expected through evening will refine resolution amid typical late-April mildness above historical 11°C norms.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Lowest temperature in Tokyo on April 29?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on April 29?
15°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$19,729 交易量
$19,729 交易量
2026-04-29
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C or higher
No
15°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$19,729 交易量
$19,729 交易量
2026-04-29
9°C or below
$1,036 交易量
No
10°C
$2,574 交易量
No
11°C
$2,071 交易量
No
12°C
$1,766 交易量
No
13°C
$1,577 交易量
No
14°C
$1,429 交易量
No
15°C
$1,494 交易量
Yes
16°C
$1,418 交易量
No
17°C
$1,031 交易量
No
18°C
$2,602 交易量
No
19°C or higher
$2,731 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects close alignment with the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast for Tokyo's April 29 low temperature near 14–15°C, driven by persistent cloud cover and scattered showers limiting nocturnal radiative cooling overnight. Early morning observations hovered around 16–17°C, with models showing minimal further drop due to urban heat island effects in central Tokyo and light southerly winds trapping warmth. Differentiating 15°C (26.5% implied probability) from 14°C (22%) hinges on subtle variations in afternoon cloud trends and evening precipitation—thicker overcast favors the higher low, while brief clearing could enable a 1°C dip. JMA hourly updates expected through evening will refine resolution amid typical late-April mildness above historical 11°C norms.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$19,729结束日期
2026-04-29市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 12:02 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects close alignment with the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast for Tokyo's April 29 low temperature near 14–15°C, driven by persistent cloud cover and scattered showers limiting nocturnal radiative cooling overnight. Early morning observations hovered around 16–17°C, with models showing minimal further drop due to urban heat island effects in central Tokyo and light southerly winds trapping warmth. Differentiating 15°C (26.5% implied probability) from 14°C (22%) hinges on subtle variations in afternoon cloud trends and evening precipitation—thicker overcast favors the higher low, while brief clearing could enable a 1°C dip. JMA hourly updates expected through evening will refine resolution amid typical late-April mildness above historical 11°C norms.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$19,729结束日期
2026-04-29市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 12:02 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects close alignment with the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) latest forecast for Tokyo's April 29 low temperature near 14–15°C, driven by persistent cloud cover and scattered showers limiting nocturnal radiative cooling overnight. Early morning observations hovered around 16–17°C, with models showing minimal further drop due to urban heat island effects in central Tokyo and light southerly winds trapping warmth. Differentiating 15°C (26.5% implied probability) from 14°C (22%) hinges on subtle variations in afternoon cloud trends and evening precipitation—thicker overcast favors the higher low, while brief clearing could enable a 1°C dip. JMA hourly updates expected through evening will refine resolution amid typical late-April mildness above historical 11°C norms.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题