Recent Japan Meteorological Agency and international model guidance points to overnight lows near 23°C in Tokyo on August 16, aligning with the market's strongest implied probability. Persistent summer humidity above 70 percent, combined with urban heat-island effects and limited radiative cooling under cloudy skies and scattered showers, typically prevents temperatures from dropping much below the seasonal average of 24°C. Forecast soundings show light winds and possible precipitation through the period, which further moderates minimums, while any clearing could allow a brief dip toward 22°C. Updated model runs and the Japan Meteorological Agency's next briefing remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift trader consensus around these thresholds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月16日东京气温最低？
8月16日东京气温最低？
23°C 53%
24°C 29%
22°C 13%
25°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-08-16
18°C或以下
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
4%
21°C
5%
22°C
13%
23°C
53%
24°C
29%
25°C
7%
26°C
5%
27°C
1%
28°C或更高
1%
23°C 53%
24°C 29%
22°C 13%
25°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-08-16
18°C或以下
$47 交易量
<1%
19°C
$37 交易量
1%
20°C
$10 交易量
4%
21°C
$10 交易量
5%
22°C
$30 交易量
13%
23°C
$75 交易量
53%
24°C
$65 交易量
29%
25°C
$118 交易量
7%
26°C
$10 交易量
5%
27°C
$37 交易量
1%
28°C或更高
$64 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency and international model guidance points to overnight lows near 23°C in Tokyo on August 16, aligning with the market's strongest implied probability. Persistent summer humidity above 70 percent, combined with urban heat-island effects and limited radiative cooling under cloudy skies and scattered showers, typically prevents temperatures from dropping much below the seasonal average of 24°C. Forecast soundings show light winds and possible precipitation through the period, which further moderates minimums, while any clearing could allow a brief dip toward 22°C. Updated model runs and the Japan Meteorological Agency's next briefing remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift trader consensus around these thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
交易量
$502结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency and international model guidance points to overnight lows near 23°C in Tokyo on August 16, aligning with the market's strongest implied probability. Persistent summer humidity above 70 percent, combined with urban heat-island effects and limited radiative cooling under cloudy skies and scattered showers, typically prevents temperatures from dropping much below the seasonal average of 24°C. Forecast soundings show light winds and possible precipitation through the period, which further moderates minimums, while any clearing could allow a brief dip toward 22°C. Updated model runs and the Japan Meteorological Agency's next briefing remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift trader consensus around these thresholds.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$502结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETRecent Japan Meteorological Agency and international model guidance points to overnight lows near 23°C in Tokyo on August 16, aligning with the market's strongest implied probability. Persistent summer humidity above 70 percent, combined with urban heat-island effects and limited radiative cooling under cloudy skies and scattered showers, typically prevents temperatures from dropping much below the seasonal average of 24°C. Forecast soundings show light winds and possible precipitation through the period, which further moderates minimums, while any clearing could allow a brief dip toward 22°C. Updated model runs and the Japan Meteorological Agency's next briefing remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift trader consensus around these thresholds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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