Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data valid through mid-September 2026 show exceptional (D4) drought persisting across multiple western and southern states, including substantial portions of Colorado, New Mexico, Idaho, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, and Nevada, driven by the contiguous United States’ record-warm June–August period and widespread precipitation deficits. This established pattern of severe, multi-month dryness underpins the 94% market-implied probability for 10 or more states in D4 during the week of September 22. The next weekly USDM update, incorporating any late-September rainfall or continued dry conditions, will determine final resolution; modest improvements in one or two states from targeted precipitation could reduce the count below 10, though current model consensus and soil-moisture trends make such rapid widespread relief unlikely.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年9月22日当周，有多少州将进入D4 （异常干旱） ？
2026年9月22日当周，有多少州将进入D4 （异常干旱） ？
10个或更多州 94%
7-9个州 5%
1-2个州 3.0%
3-4个州 3.0%
最新
最新
2026-09-24
0个州
1%
1-2个州
3%
3-4个州
3%
5-6个州
3%
7-9个州
5%
10个或更多州
94%
10个或更多州 94%
7-9个州 5%
1-2个州 3.0%
3-4个州 3.0%
最新
最新
2026-09-24
0个州
$25 交易量
1%
1-2个州
$0 交易量
3%
3-4个州
$0 交易量
3%
5-6个州
$0 交易量
3%
7-9个州
$0 交易量
5%
10个或更多州
$0 交易量
94%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data valid through mid-September 2026 show exceptional (D4) drought persisting across multiple western and southern states, including substantial portions of Colorado, New Mexico, Idaho, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, and Nevada, driven by the contiguous United States’ record-warm June–August period and widespread precipitation deficits. This established pattern of severe, multi-month dryness underpins the 94% market-implied probability for 10 or more states in D4 during the week of September 22. The next weekly USDM update, incorporating any late-September rainfall or continued dry conditions, will determine final resolution; modest improvements in one or two states from targeted precipitation could reduce the count below 10, though current model consensus and soil-moisture trends make such rapid widespread relief unlikely.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
市场开放时间： Sep 17, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
交易量
$25结束日期
2026-09-24市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 9:00 AM ETThis market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data valid through mid-September 2026 show exceptional (D4) drought persisting across multiple western and southern states, including substantial portions of Colorado, New Mexico, Idaho, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, and Nevada, driven by the contiguous United States’ record-warm June–August period and widespread precipitation deficits. This established pattern of severe, multi-month dryness underpins the 94% market-implied probability for 10 or more states in D4 during the week of September 22. The next weekly USDM update, incorporating any late-September rainfall or continued dry conditions, will determine final resolution; modest improvements in one or two states from targeted precipitation could reduce the count below 10, though current model consensus and soil-moisture trends make such rapid widespread relief unlikely.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
交易量
$25结束日期
2026-09-24市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 9:00 AM ETRecent U.S. Drought Monitor data valid through mid-September 2026 show exceptional (D4) drought persisting across multiple western and southern states, including substantial portions of Colorado, New Mexico, Idaho, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, and Nevada, driven by the contiguous United States’ record-warm June–August period and widespread precipitation deficits. This established pattern of severe, multi-month dryness underpins the 94% market-implied probability for 10 or more states in D4 during the week of September 22. The next weekly USDM update, incorporating any late-September rainfall or continued dry conditions, will determine final resolution; modest improvements in one or two states from targeted precipitation could reduce the count below 10, though current model consensus and soil-moisture trends make such rapid widespread relief unlikely.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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