Incumbent Democrat Henry Cuellar’s established position in Texas’s 28th district, where he has served since 2005 and won renomination in the March 2026 primary with 58 percent, underpins the Democratic edge in trader pricing. The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+3 yet has leaned Democratic in recent cycles, giving Cuellar structural advantages in name recognition and fundraising against Republican nominee Tano Tijerina, the Webb County judge who secured his party’s nomination by a wide margin. With the general election still five months away and no major late-breaking developments since the primaries, market consensus assigns the higher implied probability to the incumbent while leaving room for shifts from campaign spending, turnout patterns in South Texas, or national political conditions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-04
民主党
67%
共和党
25%
最新
最新
2026-11-04
民主党
$1,072 交易量
67%
共和党
$353 交易量
25%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Henry Cuellar’s established position in Texas’s 28th district, where he has served since 2005 and won renomination in the March 2026 primary with 58 percent, underpins the Democratic edge in trader pricing. The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+3 yet has leaned Democratic in recent cycles, giving Cuellar structural advantages in name recognition and fundraising against Republican nominee Tano Tijerina, the Webb County judge who secured his party’s nomination by a wide margin. With the general election still five months away and no major late-breaking developments since the primaries, market consensus assigns the higher implied probability to the incumbent while leaving room for shifts from campaign spending, turnout patterns in South Texas, or national political conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
交易量
$1,426结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Henry Cuellar’s established position in Texas’s 28th district, where he has served since 2005 and won renomination in the March 2026 primary with 58 percent, underpins the Democratic edge in trader pricing. The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+3 yet has leaned Democratic in recent cycles, giving Cuellar structural advantages in name recognition and fundraising against Republican nominee Tano Tijerina, the Webb County judge who secured his party’s nomination by a wide margin. With the general election still five months away and no major late-breaking developments since the primaries, market consensus assigns the higher implied probability to the incumbent while leaving room for shifts from campaign spending, turnout patterns in South Texas, or national political conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$1,426结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Henry Cuellar’s established position in Texas’s 28th district, where he has served since 2005 and won renomination in the March 2026 primary with 58 percent, underpins the Democratic edge in trader pricing. The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+3 yet has leaned Democratic in recent cycles, giving Cuellar structural advantages in name recognition and fundraising against Republican nominee Tano Tijerina, the Webb County judge who secured his party’s nomination by a wide margin. With the general election still five months away and no major late-breaking developments since the primaries, market consensus assigns the higher implied probability to the incumbent while leaving room for shifts from campaign spending, turnout patterns in South Texas, or national political conditions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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