Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Lucknow's highest temperature on March 22 reaching 30°C or below (49.5% implied probability), propelled by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts indicating daytime maxima of 29-31°C under prevailing dry northerly winds and clear skies typical for late March. Historical averages for the city hover around 29-30°C, corroborated by recent observations of 28-30°C over the past week, with no heat dome or advection patterns evident in GFS and ECMWF ensemble models. The 22.5% odds for exactly 31°C reflect minor uncertainty from urban heat island amplification and potential afternoon insolation peaks, while negligible chances above 32°C align with subdued jet stream influences; watch IMD's final bulletin for resolution tweaks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Lucknow on March 22?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 22?
30°C or below 50%
31°C 23%
32°C 10%
33°C 5.8%
$19,852 Vol.
$19,852 Vol.
30°C or below
50%
31°C
23%
32°C
10%
33°C
6%
34°C
3%
35°C
1%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
1%
40°C or higher
1%
30°C or below 50%
31°C 23%
32°C 10%
33°C 5.8%
$19,852 Vol.
$19,852 Vol.
30°C or below
50%
31°C
23%
32°C
10%
33°C
6%
34°C
3%
35°C
1%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
1%
40°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Lucknow's highest temperature on March 22 reaching 30°C or below (49.5% implied probability), propelled by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts indicating daytime maxima of 29-31°C under prevailing dry northerly winds and clear skies typical for late March. Historical averages for the city hover around 29-30°C, corroborated by recent observations of 28-30°C over the past week, with no heat dome or advection patterns evident in GFS and ECMWF ensemble models. The 22.5% odds for exactly 31°C reflect minor uncertainty from urban heat island amplification and potential afternoon insolation peaks, while negligible chances above 32°C align with subdued jet stream influences; watch IMD's final bulletin for resolution tweaks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen