Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 12°C (31%) as Milan's highest temperature on March 22, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on mild conditions amid a weak high-pressure ridge over northern Italy. Recent model runs, updated within the last 24 hours, indicate daytime highs stabilizing near 12-13°C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds limiting warming. High uncertainty stems from discrepancies in boundary layer forecasts and potential for sudden cloud cover or cold air advection, boosting odds for 11°C (17%) or 13°C (20%); extremes like 8°C or below (7%) or 18°C+ (2%) reflect rare risks from stalled fronts or föhn winds, per historical March volatility in Lombardy. Key upcoming: 12Z model refresh could shift implied probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Mailand am 22. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Mailand am 22. März?
12°C 31%
13°C 17%
11°C 16.9%
9°C 9.2%
$15,414 Vol.
$15,414 Vol.
8°C oder weniger
7%
9°C
9%
10°C
9%
11°C
17%
12°C
31%
13°C
21%
14°C
9%
15°C
3%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C oder höher
2%
12°C 31%
13°C 17%
11°C 16.9%
9°C 9.2%
$15,414 Vol.
$15,414 Vol.
8°C oder weniger
7%
9°C
9%
10°C
9%
11°C
17%
12°C
31%
13°C
21%
14°C
9%
15°C
3%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C oder höher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 18, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 12°C (31%) as Milan's highest temperature on March 22, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on mild conditions amid a weak high-pressure ridge over northern Italy. Recent model runs, updated within the last 24 hours, indicate daytime highs stabilizing near 12-13°C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds limiting warming. High uncertainty stems from discrepancies in boundary layer forecasts and potential for sudden cloud cover or cold air advection, boosting odds for 11°C (17%) or 13°C (20%); extremes like 8°C or below (7%) or 18°C+ (2%) reflect rare risks from stalled fronts or föhn winds, per historical March volatility in Lombardy. Key upcoming: 12Z model refresh could shift implied probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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