The district’s heavily Democratic voter registration—roughly 50% Democrat and just 17% Republican—combined with its location in the eastern San Francisco Bay Area anchors the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. An open seat after Eric Swalwell’s April 2026 resignation over misconduct allegations has produced a crowded Democratic primary featuring state Sen. Aisha Wahab, who secured the party endorsement, alongside other local officeholders. Republican candidates face structural disadvantages in a district that has delivered consistent large Democratic margins in recent cycles. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, unusually low Democratic turnout, or an unforeseen national political shift could narrow the gap, though the underlying partisan composition limits realistic paths for a Republican victory in the November general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-14 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-14 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$26,529 Vol.
$26,529 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
94%
Partido Republicano
6%
$26,529 Vol.
$26,529 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$8,560 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$17,969 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district’s heavily Democratic voter registration—roughly 50% Democrat and just 17% Republican—combined with its location in the eastern San Francisco Bay Area anchors the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. An open seat after Eric Swalwell’s April 2026 resignation over misconduct allegations has produced a crowded Democratic primary featuring state Sen. Aisha Wahab, who secured the party endorsement, alongside other local officeholders. Republican candidates face structural disadvantages in a district that has delivered consistent large Democratic margins in recent cycles. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, unusually low Democratic turnout, or an unforeseen national political shift could narrow the gap, though the underlying partisan composition limits realistic paths for a Republican victory in the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volumen
$26,529Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district’s heavily Democratic voter registration—roughly 50% Democrat and just 17% Republican—combined with its location in the eastern San Francisco Bay Area anchors the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. An open seat after Eric Swalwell’s April 2026 resignation over misconduct allegations has produced a crowded Democratic primary featuring state Sen. Aisha Wahab, who secured the party endorsement, alongside other local officeholders. Republican candidates face structural disadvantages in a district that has delivered consistent large Democratic margins in recent cycles. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, unusually low Democratic turnout, or an unforeseen national political shift could narrow the gap, though the underlying partisan composition limits realistic paths for a Republican victory in the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$26,529Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district’s heavily Democratic voter registration—roughly 50% Democrat and just 17% Republican—combined with its location in the eastern San Francisco Bay Area anchors the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. An open seat after Eric Swalwell’s April 2026 resignation over misconduct allegations has produced a crowded Democratic primary featuring state Sen. Aisha Wahab, who secured the party endorsement, alongside other local officeholders. Republican candidates face structural disadvantages in a district that has delivered consistent large Democratic margins in recent cycles. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, unusually low Democratic turnout, or an unforeseen national political shift could narrow the gap, though the underlying partisan composition limits realistic paths for a Republican victory in the November general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes