Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean faces Democrat LaShonda Holloway in Florida's 4th Congressional District on November 3, 2026, after both advanced from the August 18 primaries. Major forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections rate the seat as Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district's consistent R+5 partisan voter index and strong historical support for GOP candidates. Bean's incumbency and the absence of significant recent polling shifts or external events have reinforced trader consensus around an 88.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee. Holloway's primary victory consolidated the Democratic side but has not altered the underlying electoral math in this Northeast Florida district.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoFL-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
FL-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$27,387 Vol.
$27,387 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
89%
Partido Demócrata
13%
$27,387 Vol.
$27,387 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$16,700 Vol.
89%
Partido Demócrata
$10,687 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean faces Democrat LaShonda Holloway in Florida's 4th Congressional District on November 3, 2026, after both advanced from the August 18 primaries. Major forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections rate the seat as Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district's consistent R+5 partisan voter index and strong historical support for GOP candidates. Bean's incumbency and the absence of significant recent polling shifts or external events have reinforced trader consensus around an 88.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee. Holloway's primary victory consolidated the Democratic side but has not altered the underlying electoral math in this Northeast Florida district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Volumen
$27,387Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean faces Democrat LaShonda Holloway in Florida's 4th Congressional District on November 3, 2026, after both advanced from the August 18 primaries. Major forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections rate the seat as Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district's consistent R+5 partisan voter index and strong historical support for GOP candidates. Bean's incumbency and the absence of significant recent polling shifts or external events have reinforced trader consensus around an 88.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee. Holloway's primary victory consolidated the Democratic side but has not altered the underlying electoral math in this Northeast Florida district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$27,387Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean faces Democrat LaShonda Holloway in Florida's 4th Congressional District on November 3, 2026, after both advanced from the August 18 primaries. Major forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections rate the seat as Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district's consistent R+5 partisan voter index and strong historical support for GOP candidates. Bean's incumbency and the absence of significant recent polling shifts or external events have reinforced trader consensus around an 88.5% implied probability for the Republican nominee. Holloway's primary victory consolidated the Democratic side but has not altered the underlying electoral math in this Northeast Florida district.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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