The Fed's September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% marked its first hike since 2023 and drove the elevated 85.5% market-implied odds for at least one more increase before year-end. Updated Summary of Economic Projections showed the median year-end 2026 rate forecast rising to 4.1%, with 16 of 18 participants expecting further tightening amid resilient GDP growth, a solid labor market, and PCE inflation projections near 3.7%. Hotter-than-expected August inflation data and geopolitical energy pressures reinforced the hawkish pivot under Chair Warsh. Traders now assign roughly 50-90% odds to moves at the October or December meetings, consistent with futures pricing a year-end rate near 4.15%. Upcoming FOMC decisions and inflation releases remain key swing factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated86% chance
$81,256 Vol.
$81,256 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
86% chance
$81,256 Vol.
$81,256 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Fed's September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% marked its first hike since 2023 and drove the elevated 85.5% market-implied odds for at least one more increase before year-end. Updated Summary of Economic Projections showed the median year-end 2026 rate forecast rising to 4.1%, with 16 of 18 participants expecting further tightening amid resilient GDP growth, a solid labor market, and PCE inflation projections near 3.7%. Hotter-than-expected August inflation data and geopolitical energy pressures reinforced the hawkish pivot under Chair Warsh. Traders now assign roughly 50-90% odds to moves at the October or December meetings, consistent with futures pricing a year-end rate near 4.15%. Upcoming FOMC decisions and inflation releases remain key swing factors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$81,256End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Fed's September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% marked its first hike since 2023 and drove the elevated 85.5% market-implied odds for at least one more increase before year-end. Updated Summary of Economic Projections showed the median year-end 2026 rate forecast rising to 4.1%, with 16 of 18 participants expecting further tightening amid resilient GDP growth, a solid labor market, and PCE inflation projections near 3.7%. Hotter-than-expected August inflation data and geopolitical energy pressures reinforced the hawkish pivot under Chair Warsh. Traders now assign roughly 50-90% odds to moves at the October or December meetings, consistent with futures pricing a year-end rate near 4.15%. Upcoming FOMC decisions and inflation releases remain key swing factors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$81,256End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Fed's September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% marked its first hike since 2023 and drove the elevated 85.5% market-implied odds for at least one more increase before year-end. Updated Summary of Economic Projections showed the median year-end 2026 rate forecast rising to 4.1%, with 16 of 18 participants expecting further tightening amid resilient GDP growth, a solid labor market, and PCE inflation projections near 3.7%. Hotter-than-expected August inflation data and geopolitical energy pressures reinforced the hawkish pivot under Chair Warsh. Traders now assign roughly 50-90% odds to moves at the October or December meetings, consistent with futures pricing a year-end rate near 4.15%. Upcoming FOMC decisions and inflation releases remain key swing factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions