Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95.5% implied probability for no change in the Bank of England's Bank Rate at its April 30, 2026, Monetary Policy Committee meeting, reflecting the unanimous March hold at 3.75% amid sticky CPI inflation holding at 3.0% in February—well above the 2% target—fueled by Middle East conflict-driven energy disruptions. Weak GDP growth forecasts at 0.7% for 2026 further anchor expectations for stability over cuts, while hike odds at 4% stem from potential inflation persistence. Key upcoming catalyst is March 2026 CPI data on April 22; a sharp downside surprise could marginally boost cut probabilities, though geopolitical stabilization remains a low-likelihood challenge to the hold consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBank of England decision in April?
Bank of England decision in April?
No change 95.5%
Increase 4.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$455,072 Vol.
$455,072 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
96%
Increase
4%
No change 95.5%
Increase 4.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$455,072 Vol.
$455,072 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
96%
Increase
4%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's April 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 5:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's April 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95.5% implied probability for no change in the Bank of England's Bank Rate at its April 30, 2026, Monetary Policy Committee meeting, reflecting the unanimous March hold at 3.75% amid sticky CPI inflation holding at 3.0% in February—well above the 2% target—fueled by Middle East conflict-driven energy disruptions. Weak GDP growth forecasts at 0.7% for 2026 further anchor expectations for stability over cuts, while hike odds at 4% stem from potential inflation persistence. Key upcoming catalyst is March 2026 CPI data on April 22; a sharp downside surprise could marginally boost cut probabilities, though geopolitical stabilization remains a low-likelihood challenge to the hold consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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