Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 300-319 times on X from April 10-17, 2026, at 51% implied probability, driven by his blistering pace of 267 posts through the first six days (averaging 45 daily as of April 16 morning per X trackers). This sustained volume stems from recent viral engagements, including Tesla's full self-driving demo cruising LA streets, sharp critiques of OpenAI's nonprofit-to-profit shift amid his ongoing lawsuit, defenses of X's privacy against WhatsApp scandals, and boasts about Grok topping legal AI benchmarks. Echoing Musk's 2026 norm of 30-50 daily posts during controversy spikes, the market anticipates a mild slowdown on the final day, April 17, barring fresh AI or Tesla catalysts that could nudge totals into the 320-339 range (18% odds).
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated300-319 51%
280-299 24.9%
320-339 17.4%
340-359 4.7%
$10,391,715 Vol.
$10,391,715 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
260-279
2%
280-299
25%
300-319
51%
320-339
17%
340-359
5%
360-379
2%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
300-319 51%
280-299 24.9%
320-339 17.4%
340-359 4.7%
$10,391,715 Vol.
$10,391,715 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
260-279
$710,829 Vol.
2%
280-299
$461,754 Vol.
25%
300-319
$354,503 Vol.
51%
320-339
$462,607 Vol.
17%
340-359
$402,978 Vol.
5%
360-379
$422,768 Vol.
2%
380-399
$380,381 Vol.
<1%
400-419
$494,830 Vol.
<1%
420-439
$430,731 Vol.
<1%
440-459
$483,698 Vol.
<1%
460-479
$342,850 Vol.
<1%
480-499
$329,750 Vol.
<1%
500-519
$264,248 Vol.
<1%
520-539
$266,477 Vol.
<1%
540-559
$270,374 Vol.
<1%
560-579
$188,742 Vol.
<1%
580+
$354,007 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 10 12:00 PM ET to April 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 300-319 times on X from April 10-17, 2026, at 51% implied probability, driven by his blistering pace of 267 posts through the first six days (averaging 45 daily as of April 16 morning per X trackers). This sustained volume stems from recent viral engagements, including Tesla's full self-driving demo cruising LA streets, sharp critiques of OpenAI's nonprofit-to-profit shift amid his ongoing lawsuit, defenses of X's privacy against WhatsApp scandals, and boasts about Grok topping legal AI benchmarks. Echoing Musk's 2026 norm of 30-50 daily posts during controversy spikes, the market anticipates a mild slowdown on the final day, April 17, barring fresh AI or Tesla catalysts that could nudge totals into the 320-339 range (18% odds).
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 10 12:00 PM ET to April 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$10,391,715End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 10 12:00 PM ET to April 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 300-319 times on X from April 10-17, 2026, at 51% implied probability, driven by his blistering pace of 267 posts through the first six days (averaging 45 daily as of April 16 morning per X trackers). This sustained volume stems from recent viral engagements, including Tesla's full self-driving demo cruising LA streets, sharp critiques of OpenAI's nonprofit-to-profit shift amid his ongoing lawsuit, defenses of X's privacy against WhatsApp scandals, and boasts about Grok topping legal AI benchmarks. Echoing Musk's 2026 norm of 30-50 daily posts during controversy spikes, the market anticipates a mild slowdown on the final day, April 17, barring fresh AI or Tesla catalysts that could nudge totals into the 320-339 range (18% odds).
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 10 12:00 PM ET to April 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$10,391,715End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk posting 300-319 times on X from April 10-17, 2026, at 51% implied probability, driven by his blistering pace of 267 posts through the first six days (averaging 45 daily as of April 16 morning per X trackers). This sustained volume stems from recent viral engagements, including Tesla's full self-driving demo cruising LA streets, sharp critiques of OpenAI's nonprofit-to-profit shift amid his ongoing lawsuit, defenses of X's privacy against WhatsApp scandals, and boasts about Grok topping legal AI benchmarks. Echoing Musk's 2026 norm of 30-50 daily posts during controversy spikes, the market anticipates a mild slowdown on the final day, April 17, barring fresh AI or Tesla catalysts that could nudge totals into the 320-339 range (18% odds).
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions