Resurgent inflation data and hawkish FOMC communications have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to 67.5% on Polymarket. The target range remains 3.50%-3.75% after no policy changes year-to-date, yet June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year—down from May's 4.2% but still elevated amid energy pressures—has prompted traders to price at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. The June dot plot showed nine of 18 participants favoring a higher year-end rate, aligning with new Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on price stability. Fed funds futures currently embed this path, contrasting earlier 2026 expectations for cuts, while upcoming September and December FOMC meetings plus further CPI releases remain key catalysts that could reinforce or ease these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$6,191,940 Vol.
$6,191,940 Vol.
$6,191,940 Vol.
$6,191,940 Vol.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resurgent inflation data and hawkish FOMC communications have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to 67.5% on Polymarket. The target range remains 3.50%-3.75% after no policy changes year-to-date, yet June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year—down from May's 4.2% but still elevated amid energy pressures—has prompted traders to price at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. The June dot plot showed nine of 18 participants favoring a higher year-end rate, aligning with new Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on price stability. Fed funds futures currently embed this path, contrasting earlier 2026 expectations for cuts, while upcoming September and December FOMC meetings plus further CPI releases remain key catalysts that could reinforce or ease these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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