Persistent inflation pressures, with June 2026 CPI at 3.5% year-over-year, combined with a resilient labor market and solid GDP growth near 2.2%, underpin the 67.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. The July 29 FOMC decision held the target range at 3.50%-3.75% on a 9-3 vote, marking the strongest hawkish dissent in recent meetings as three members favored an immediate 25-basis-point increase. June dot plot projections showed nine participants expecting higher rates by year-end, while fed funds futures now price in 30-35 basis points of tightening. Key catalysts ahead include the September FOMC meeting, upcoming CPI and employment data, and any escalation in energy price volatility from geopolitical tensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$6,185,991 Vol.
$6,185,991 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
$6,185,991 Vol.
$6,185,991 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures, with June 2026 CPI at 3.5% year-over-year, combined with a resilient labor market and solid GDP growth near 2.2%, underpin the 67.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. The July 29 FOMC decision held the target range at 3.50%-3.75% on a 9-3 vote, marking the strongest hawkish dissent in recent meetings as three members favored an immediate 25-basis-point increase. June dot plot projections showed nine participants expecting higher rates by year-end, while fed funds futures now price in 30-35 basis points of tightening. Key catalysts ahead include the September FOMC meeting, upcoming CPI and employment data, and any escalation in energy price volatility from geopolitical tensions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$6,185,991End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures, with June 2026 CPI at 3.5% year-over-year, combined with a resilient labor market and solid GDP growth near 2.2%, underpin the 67.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. The July 29 FOMC decision held the target range at 3.50%-3.75% on a 9-3 vote, marking the strongest hawkish dissent in recent meetings as three members favored an immediate 25-basis-point increase. June dot plot projections showed nine participants expecting higher rates by year-end, while fed funds futures now price in 30-35 basis points of tightening. Key catalysts ahead include the September FOMC meeting, upcoming CPI and employment data, and any escalation in energy price volatility from geopolitical tensions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,185,991End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation pressures, with June 2026 CPI at 3.5% year-over-year, combined with a resilient labor market and solid GDP growth near 2.2%, underpin the 67.5% market-implied probability of at least one federal funds rate hike in 2026. The July 29 FOMC decision held the target range at 3.50%-3.75% on a 9-3 vote, marking the strongest hawkish dissent in recent meetings as three members favored an immediate 25-basis-point increase. June dot plot projections showed nine participants expecting higher rates by year-end, while fed funds futures now price in 30-35 basis points of tightening. Key catalysts ahead include the September FOMC meeting, upcoming CPI and employment data, and any escalation in energy price volatility from geopolitical tensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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