Incumbent Republican Brian Mast faces a Democratic primary on August 18 before the November 3 general election in Florida’s 21st congressional district, a seat rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report with an R+7 partisan voting index. Mast, who won 61.8% in 2024, advanced unopposed in the Republican primary following the 2026 redistricting map that preserved the district’s GOP tilt. Democratic contenders James Martin and Bernard Taylor will vie for the nomination, but the district’s voting patterns and lack of competitive challengers have shaped trader consensus around an 86.5% implied probability for the Republican outcome. No major recent developments have altered the race’s fundamentals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-21 House Election Winner
FL-21 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
87%
Democratic Party
13%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$5,068 Vol.
87%
Democratic Party
$3,454 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brian Mast faces a Democratic primary on August 18 before the November 3 general election in Florida’s 21st congressional district, a seat rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report with an R+7 partisan voting index. Mast, who won 61.8% in 2024, advanced unopposed in the Republican primary following the 2026 redistricting map that preserved the district’s GOP tilt. Democratic contenders James Martin and Bernard Taylor will vie for the nomination, but the district’s voting patterns and lack of competitive challengers have shaped trader consensus around an 86.5% implied probability for the Republican outcome. No major recent developments have altered the race’s fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ET
Volume
$8,522End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brian Mast faces a Democratic primary on August 18 before the November 3 general election in Florida’s 21st congressional district, a seat rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report with an R+7 partisan voting index. Mast, who won 61.8% in 2024, advanced unopposed in the Republican primary following the 2026 redistricting map that preserved the district’s GOP tilt. Democratic contenders James Martin and Bernard Taylor will vie for the nomination, but the district’s voting patterns and lack of competitive challengers have shaped trader consensus around an 86.5% implied probability for the Republican outcome. No major recent developments have altered the race’s fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$8,522End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Brian Mast faces a Democratic primary on August 18 before the November 3 general election in Florida’s 21st congressional district, a seat rated Solid Republican by the Cook Political Report with an R+7 partisan voting index. Mast, who won 61.8% in 2024, advanced unopposed in the Republican primary following the 2026 redistricting map that preserved the district’s GOP tilt. Democratic contenders James Martin and Bernard Taylor will vie for the nomination, but the district’s voting patterns and lack of competitive challengers have shaped trader consensus around an 86.5% implied probability for the Republican outcome. No major recent developments have altered the race’s fundamentals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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