Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to a 22°C high in Chengdu on April 30, backed by China Meteorological Administration observations at Shuangliu International Airport showing midday peaks near 21°C amid persistent overcast skies, 99% cloud cover, and north-northeasterly winds that curb solar insolation and convective heating. ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts align with a maximum of 22–23°C under this cooler synoptic pattern, diverging from April's typical 23–24°C average due to incoming light rain suppressing further warming. Final CMA data after midnight will confirm resolution; a sudden cloud break enabling brief insolation spikes could realistically push to 23°C, though model uncertainty ranges deem this low-probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on April 30?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 30?
22°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$64,338 Vol.
$64,338 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$64,338 Vol.
$64,338 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
18°C or below
$2,314 Vol.
No
19°C
$3,038 Vol.
No
20°C
$5,257 Vol.
No
21°C
$7,245 Vol.
No
22°C
$12,278 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$7,854 Vol.
No
24°C
$5,815 Vol.
No
25°C
$5,971 Vol.
No
26°C
$4,914 Vol.
No
27°C
$4,420 Vol.
No
28°C or higher
$5,232 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to a 22°C high in Chengdu on April 30, backed by China Meteorological Administration observations at Shuangliu International Airport showing midday peaks near 21°C amid persistent overcast skies, 99% cloud cover, and north-northeasterly winds that curb solar insolation and convective heating. ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts align with a maximum of 22–23°C under this cooler synoptic pattern, diverging from April's typical 23–24°C average due to incoming light rain suppressing further warming. Final CMA data after midnight will confirm resolution; a sudden cloud break enabling brief insolation spikes could realistically push to 23°C, though model uncertainty ranges deem this low-probability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 3:02 PM ET
Volume
$64,338End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 3:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to a 22°C high in Chengdu on April 30, backed by China Meteorological Administration observations at Shuangliu International Airport showing midday peaks near 21°C amid persistent overcast skies, 99% cloud cover, and north-northeasterly winds that curb solar insolation and convective heating. ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts align with a maximum of 22–23°C under this cooler synoptic pattern, diverging from April's typical 23–24°C average due to incoming light rain suppressing further warming. Final CMA data after midnight will confirm resolution; a sudden cloud break enabling brief insolation spikes could realistically push to 23°C, though model uncertainty ranges deem this low-probability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$64,338End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 3:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain implied probability to a 22°C high in Chengdu on April 30, backed by China Meteorological Administration observations at Shuangliu International Airport showing midday peaks near 21°C amid persistent overcast skies, 99% cloud cover, and north-northeasterly winds that curb solar insolation and convective heating. ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts align with a maximum of 22–23°C under this cooler synoptic pattern, diverging from April's typical 23–24°C average due to incoming light rain suppressing further warming. Final CMA data after midnight will confirm resolution; a sudden cloud break enabling brief insolation spikes could realistically push to 23°C, though model uncertainty ranges deem this low-probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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