Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a high near 93°F for Dallas on July 4, 2026, supported by increased cloud cover, scattered morning showers, and southerly flow limiting daytime heating. Trader consensus favoring the 98–99°F bin over 100–101°F reflects modest upward revisions in some short-range ensembles alongside historical July climatology near 95°F, while lower bins capture uncertainty from potential convective timing and boundary-layer moisture. Key variables differentiating narrow ranges include afternoon dew points, wind speeds, and any late-day clearing that could allow brief additional warming before resolution at official Dallas Love Field observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on July 4?
Highest temperature in Dallas on July 4?
98-99°F 100%
95°F or below <1%
96-97°F <1%
100-101°F <1%
$45,279 Vol.
$45,279 Vol.
Jul 4, 2026
95°F or below
No
96-97°F
No
98-99°F
Yes
100-101°F
No
102-103°F
No
104-105°F
No
106-107°F
No
108-109°F
No
110-111°F
No
112-113°F
No
114°F or higher
No
98-99°F 100%
95°F or below <1%
96-97°F <1%
100-101°F <1%
$45,279 Vol.
$45,279 Vol.
Jul 4, 2026
95°F or below
$3,001 Vol.
No
96-97°F
$11,893 Vol.
No
98-99°F
$9,350 Vol.
Yes
100-101°F
$5,929 Vol.
No
102-103°F
$5,112 Vol.
No
104-105°F
$3,490 Vol.
No
106-107°F
$1,929 Vol.
No
108-109°F
$1,058 Vol.
No
110-111°F
$633 Vol.
No
112-113°F
$1,597 Vol.
No
114°F or higher
$1,288 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a high near 93°F for Dallas on July 4, 2026, supported by increased cloud cover, scattered morning showers, and southerly flow limiting daytime heating. Trader consensus favoring the 98–99°F bin over 100–101°F reflects modest upward revisions in some short-range ensembles alongside historical July climatology near 95°F, while lower bins capture uncertainty from potential convective timing and boundary-layer moisture. Key variables differentiating narrow ranges include afternoon dew points, wind speeds, and any late-day clearing that could allow brief additional warming before resolution at official Dallas Love Field observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$45,279End Date
Jul 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a high near 93°F for Dallas on July 4, 2026, supported by increased cloud cover, scattered morning showers, and southerly flow limiting daytime heating. Trader consensus favoring the 98–99°F bin over 100–101°F reflects modest upward revisions in some short-range ensembles alongside historical July climatology near 95°F, while lower bins capture uncertainty from potential convective timing and boundary-layer moisture. Key variables differentiating narrow ranges include afternoon dew points, wind speeds, and any late-day clearing that could allow brief additional warming before resolution at official Dallas Love Field observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$45,279End Date
Jul 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a high near 93°F for Dallas on July 4, 2026, supported by increased cloud cover, scattered morning showers, and southerly flow limiting daytime heating. Trader consensus favoring the 98–99°F bin over 100–101°F reflects modest upward revisions in some short-range ensembles alongside historical July climatology near 95°F, while lower bins capture uncertainty from potential convective timing and boundary-layer moisture. Key variables differentiating narrow ranges include afternoon dew points, wind speeds, and any late-day clearing that could allow brief additional warming before resolution at official Dallas Love Field observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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