Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects short-range forecast uncertainty for Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 17, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 27% for 29°C, 22% for 26°C or below, and 21% for 27°C, driven by divergent model outputs from the China Meteorological Administration (26°C max amid moderate rain) and AccuWeather (up to 29°C with increasing clouds). Key differentiating factors include timing of convective showers and cloud cover, which could suppress daytime insolation and cap peaks below 28°C, versus partial clearing allowing urban heat island effects to push toward 29°C—consistent with April's +3°C anomaly over the 27°C historical average. Ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF highlight this variability; watch afternoon updates from official stations for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on April 17?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on April 17?
29°C 32%
26°C or below 23%
27°C 23%
28°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Apr 17, 2026
26°C or below
23%
27°C
23%
28°C
20%
29°C
28%
30°C
10%
31°C
7%
32°C
2%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
1%
29°C 32%
26°C or below 23%
27°C 23%
28°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Apr 17, 2026
26°C or below
$418 Vol.
23%
27°C
$171 Vol.
23%
28°C
$207 Vol.
20%
29°C
$215 Vol.
28%
30°C
$323 Vol.
10%
31°C
$389 Vol.
7%
32°C
$816 Vol.
2%
33°C
$604 Vol.
1%
34°C
$1,917 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$1,670 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$1,350 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects short-range forecast uncertainty for Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 17, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 27% for 29°C, 22% for 26°C or below, and 21% for 27°C, driven by divergent model outputs from the China Meteorological Administration (26°C max amid moderate rain) and AccuWeather (up to 29°C with increasing clouds). Key differentiating factors include timing of convective showers and cloud cover, which could suppress daytime insolation and cap peaks below 28°C, versus partial clearing allowing urban heat island effects to push toward 29°C—consistent with April's +3°C anomaly over the 27°C historical average. Ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF highlight this variability; watch afternoon updates from official stations for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 15, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volume
$8,078End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects short-range forecast uncertainty for Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 17, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 27% for 29°C, 22% for 26°C or below, and 21% for 27°C, driven by divergent model outputs from the China Meteorological Administration (26°C max amid moderate rain) and AccuWeather (up to 29°C with increasing clouds). Key differentiating factors include timing of convective showers and cloud cover, which could suppress daytime insolation and cap peaks below 28°C, versus partial clearing allowing urban heat island effects to push toward 29°C—consistent with April's +3°C anomaly over the 27°C historical average. Ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF highlight this variability; watch afternoon updates from official stations for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,078End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects short-range forecast uncertainty for Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 17, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 27% for 29°C, 22% for 26°C or below, and 21% for 27°C, driven by divergent model outputs from the China Meteorological Administration (26°C max amid moderate rain) and AccuWeather (up to 29°C with increasing clouds). Key differentiating factors include timing of convective showers and cloud cover, which could suppress daytime insolation and cap peaks below 28°C, versus partial clearing allowing urban heat island effects to push toward 29°C—consistent with April's +3°C anomaly over the 27°C historical average. Ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF highlight this variability; watch afternoon updates from official stations for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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