Official National Weather Service observations at William P. Hobby Airport (KHOU), the market's designated station, recorded a maximum temperature of 82°F on April 2, 2026, around 2 PM CDT, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for the 82-83°F bin. This aligned with pre-event NOAA forecast model consensus from HRRR and GFS ensembles projecting highs in the low 80s under a mid-level ridge fostering light southerly winds (5-10 kt) and partial sunshine, with dewpoints near 70°F capping heat index but allowing efficient daytime heating above the April climatological normal of 77°F. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc data revisions from instrument audits or quality control discrepancies by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, though verified ASOS readings make this improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on April 2?
Highest temperature in Houston on April 2?
82-83°F 100.0%
69°F or below <1%
70-71°F <1%
72-73°F <1%
$50,705 Vol.
$50,705 Vol.
69°F or below
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
Yes
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88°F or higher
No
82-83°F 100.0%
69°F or below <1%
70-71°F <1%
72-73°F <1%
$50,705 Vol.
$50,705 Vol.
69°F or below
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
Yes
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88°F or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 3:28 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official National Weather Service observations at William P. Hobby Airport (KHOU), the market's designated station, recorded a maximum temperature of 82°F on April 2, 2026, around 2 PM CDT, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for the 82-83°F bin. This aligned with pre-event NOAA forecast model consensus from HRRR and GFS ensembles projecting highs in the low 80s under a mid-level ridge fostering light southerly winds (5-10 kt) and partial sunshine, with dewpoints near 70°F capping heat index but allowing efficient daytime heating above the April climatological normal of 77°F. Realistic challenges would require rare post hoc data revisions from instrument audits or quality control discrepancies by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, though verified ASOS readings make this improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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