The active southwest monsoon, reinforced by distant tropical systems including the approaching Saudel/Obet, is the dominant driver keeping Manila's August 24 maximum temperatures clustered near 30–31 °C. Persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate southwesterly winds limit daytime heating, consistent with recent PAGASA observations of 30.5 °C highs and model consensus for partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with 50–80 % rain probability. This produces the market's tight distribution around 31 °C (33.5 % implied probability) while allowing modest upside to 32–33 °C if breaks in cloud cover occur or downside toward 29 °C with heavier rain. Traders are weighting the narrow historical August range (typically 28–32 °C) against forecast uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity ahead of the next model updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 24?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 24?
31°C 34%
30°C 20%
32°C 18%
33°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
5%
29°C
15%
30°C
20%
31°C
34%
32°C
18%
33°C
17%
34°C or higher
7%
31°C 34%
30°C 20%
32°C 18%
33°C 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
24°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$50 Vol.
1%
27°C
$5 Vol.
1%
28°C
$5 Vol.
5%
29°C
$13 Vol.
15%
30°C
$34 Vol.
20%
31°C
$13 Vol.
34%
32°C
$36 Vol.
18%
33°C
$0 Vol.
17%
34°C or higher
$21 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The active southwest monsoon, reinforced by distant tropical systems including the approaching Saudel/Obet, is the dominant driver keeping Manila's August 24 maximum temperatures clustered near 30–31 °C. Persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate southwesterly winds limit daytime heating, consistent with recent PAGASA observations of 30.5 °C highs and model consensus for partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with 50–80 % rain probability. This produces the market's tight distribution around 31 °C (33.5 % implied probability) while allowing modest upside to 32–33 °C if breaks in cloud cover occur or downside toward 29 °C with heavier rain. Traders are weighting the narrow historical August range (typically 28–32 °C) against forecast uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity ahead of the next model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$178End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The active southwest monsoon, reinforced by distant tropical systems including the approaching Saudel/Obet, is the dominant driver keeping Manila's August 24 maximum temperatures clustered near 30–31 °C. Persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate southwesterly winds limit daytime heating, consistent with recent PAGASA observations of 30.5 °C highs and model consensus for partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with 50–80 % rain probability. This produces the market's tight distribution around 31 °C (33.5 % implied probability) while allowing modest upside to 32–33 °C if breaks in cloud cover occur or downside toward 29 °C with heavier rain. Traders are weighting the narrow historical August range (typically 28–32 °C) against forecast uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity ahead of the next model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$178End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...The active southwest monsoon, reinforced by distant tropical systems including the approaching Saudel/Obet, is the dominant driver keeping Manila's August 24 maximum temperatures clustered near 30–31 °C. Persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate southwesterly winds limit daytime heating, consistent with recent PAGASA observations of 30.5 °C highs and model consensus for partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with 50–80 % rain probability. This produces the market's tight distribution around 31 °C (33.5 % implied probability) while allowing modest upside to 32–33 °C if breaks in cloud cover occur or downside toward 29 °C with heavier rain. Traders are weighting the narrow historical August range (typically 28–32 °C) against forecast uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity ahead of the next model updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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