**Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN/CONAGUA) for September 10, 2026, project a maximum temperature of 25–27 °C in Mexico City, with morning lows of 12–14 °C.** This range directly underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 25 °C (55.5 % implied probability) and 24 °C (30 %), while 26 °C receives only modest support (11.5 %). Key drivers include widespread afternoon cloud cover and showers or thunderstorms (intervals of 5–25 mm), which limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling. Variable winds of 10–20 km/h with gusts to 40 km/h further mix the boundary layer. These conditions align with the broader influence of the Mexican monsoon and tropical waves, which have produced above-average rainfall across central Mexico in early September. Model consensus and observational trends show daytime peaks typically reaching the mid-20s °C under similar cloudy, moist regimes, consistent with September climatology (average highs near 23 °C). The 25 °C outcome therefore reflects the most likely intersection of the official forecast envelope and current atmospheric conditions, while higher readings would require clearer skies and stronger insolation than currently anticipated. Updated model runs and official observations later in the day remain the primary catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on September 10?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 10?
25°C 55%
24°C 30%
26°C 11%
23°C 3%
$10,620 Vol.
$10,620 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
3%
24°C
30%
25°C
55%
26°C
11%
27°C or higher
2%
25°C 55%
24°C 30%
26°C 11%
23°C 3%
$10,620 Vol.
$10,620 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
17°C or below
$230 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$240 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$277 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$298 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$130 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$348 Vol.
2%
23°C
$604 Vol.
3%
24°C
$2,759 Vol.
30%
25°C
$3,214 Vol.
55%
26°C
$1,961 Vol.
11%
27°C or higher
$559 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN/CONAGUA) for September 10, 2026, project a maximum temperature of 25–27 °C in Mexico City, with morning lows of 12–14 °C.** This range directly underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 25 °C (55.5 % implied probability) and 24 °C (30 %), while 26 °C receives only modest support (11.5 %).
Key drivers include widespread afternoon cloud cover and showers or thunderstorms (intervals of 5–25 mm), which limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling. Variable winds of 10–20 km/h with gusts to 40 km/h further mix the boundary layer. These conditions align with the broader influence of the Mexican monsoon and tropical waves, which have produced above-average rainfall across central Mexico in early September.
Model consensus and observational trends show daytime peaks typically reaching the mid-20s °C under similar cloudy, moist regimes, consistent with September climatology (average highs near 23 °C). The 25 °C outcome therefore reflects the most likely intersection of the official forecast envelope and current atmospheric conditions, while higher readings would require clearer skies and stronger insolation than currently anticipated. Updated model runs and official observations later in the day remain the primary catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$10,620End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN/CONAGUA) for September 10, 2026, project a maximum temperature of 25–27 °C in Mexico City, with morning lows of 12–14 °C.** This range directly underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 25 °C (55.5 % implied probability) and 24 °C (30 %), while 26 °C receives only modest support (11.5 %).
Key drivers include widespread afternoon cloud cover and showers or thunderstorms (intervals of 5–25 mm), which limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling. Variable winds of 10–20 km/h with gusts to 40 km/h further mix the boundary layer. These conditions align with the broader influence of the Mexican monsoon and tropical waves, which have produced above-average rainfall across central Mexico in early September.
Model consensus and observational trends show daytime peaks typically reaching the mid-20s °C under similar cloudy, moist regimes, consistent with September climatology (average highs near 23 °C). The 25 °C outcome therefore reflects the most likely intersection of the official forecast envelope and current atmospheric conditions, while higher readings would require clearer skies and stronger insolation than currently anticipated. Updated model runs and official observations later in the day remain the primary catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,620End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN/CONAGUA) for September 10, 2026, project a maximum temperature of 25–27 °C in Mexico City, with morning lows of 12–14 °C.** This range directly underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 25 °C (55.5 % implied probability) and 24 °C (30 %), while 26 °C receives only modest support (11.5 %). Key drivers include widespread afternoon cloud cover and showers or thunderstorms (intervals of 5–25 mm), which limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling. Variable winds of 10–20 km/h with gusts to 40 km/h further mix the boundary layer. These conditions align with the broader influence of the Mexican monsoon and tropical waves, which have produced above-average rainfall across central Mexico in early September. Model consensus and observational trends show daytime peaks typically reaching the mid-20s °C under similar cloudy, moist regimes, consistent with September climatology (average highs near 23 °C). The 25 °C outcome therefore reflects the most likely intersection of the official forecast envelope and current atmospheric conditions, while higher readings would require clearer skies and stronger insolation than currently anticipated. Updated model runs and official observations later in the day remain the primary catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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