Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 78-79°F (33.5% implied probability) and 77°F or below (28.5%) for New York City's highest temperature on April 17, reflecting ensemble forecast spread from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models, which project highs of 77-81°F amid a persistent upper-level ridge fostering southwest winds and above-normal warmth. Recent observations hit 87°F on April 15, with today's Central Park readings nearing 82°F under mostly sunny skies, but latest runs indicate slight cooling due to increasing cloudiness and a 20-30% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms per National Weather Service guidance, potentially capping peaks via reduced insolation. Key differentiators include boundary-layer mixing efficiency and exact timing of any convective activity; watch 12Z model updates and NWS evening discussion for refinements ahead of resolution at Central Park's official observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on April 17?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 17?
77°F or below 34%
78-79°F 34%
80-81°F 21%
82-83°F 10%
NEW
$28,761 Vol.
NEW
$28,761 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
77°F or below
34%
78-79°F
34%
80-81°F
21%
82-83°F
10%
84-85°F
2%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F or higher
<1%
77°F or below 34%
78-79°F 34%
80-81°F 21%
82-83°F 10%
NEW
$28,761 Vol.
NEW
$28,761 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
77°F or below
$4,419 Vol.
34%
78-79°F
$2,599 Vol.
34%
80-81°F
$1,610 Vol.
21%
82-83°F
$1,371 Vol.
10%
84-85°F
$2,212 Vol.
2%
86-87°F
$1,982 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$4,943 Vol.
1%
90-91°F
$1,356 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$2,240 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$2,992 Vol.
<1%
96°F or higher
$3,371 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 78-79°F (33.5% implied probability) and 77°F or below (28.5%) for New York City's highest temperature on April 17, reflecting ensemble forecast spread from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models, which project highs of 77-81°F amid a persistent upper-level ridge fostering southwest winds and above-normal warmth. Recent observations hit 87°F on April 15, with today's Central Park readings nearing 82°F under mostly sunny skies, but latest runs indicate slight cooling due to increasing cloudiness and a 20-30% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms per National Weather Service guidance, potentially capping peaks via reduced insolation. Key differentiators include boundary-layer mixing efficiency and exact timing of any convective activity; watch 12Z model updates and NWS evening discussion for refinements ahead of resolution at Central Park's official observation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$28,761End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 78-79°F (33.5% implied probability) and 77°F or below (28.5%) for New York City's highest temperature on April 17, reflecting ensemble forecast spread from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models, which project highs of 77-81°F amid a persistent upper-level ridge fostering southwest winds and above-normal warmth. Recent observations hit 87°F on April 15, with today's Central Park readings nearing 82°F under mostly sunny skies, but latest runs indicate slight cooling due to increasing cloudiness and a 20-30% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms per National Weather Service guidance, potentially capping peaks via reduced insolation. Key differentiators include boundary-layer mixing efficiency and exact timing of any convective activity; watch 12Z model updates and NWS evening discussion for refinements ahead of resolution at Central Park's official observation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$28,761End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 78-79°F (33.5% implied probability) and 77°F or below (28.5%) for New York City's highest temperature on April 17, reflecting ensemble forecast spread from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models, which project highs of 77-81°F amid a persistent upper-level ridge fostering southwest winds and above-normal warmth. Recent observations hit 87°F on April 15, with today's Central Park readings nearing 82°F under mostly sunny skies, but latest runs indicate slight cooling due to increasing cloudiness and a 20-30% chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms per National Weather Service guidance, potentially capping peaks via reduced insolation. Key differentiators include boundary-layer mixing efficiency and exact timing of any convective activity; watch 12Z model updates and NWS evening discussion for refinements ahead of resolution at Central Park's official observation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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