Latest National Weather Service forecasts for LaGuardia Airport project a high near 80°F on April 17 under a strengthening upper-level ridge ushering in an unseasonably warm air mass, well above the mid-April climatological average of 61°F and approaching historical records around 68–74°F. Trader consensus reflects this, with market-implied odds favoring 78–81°F ranges amid GFS and ECMWF ensemble spreads of 2–4°F, influenced by variable afternoon cloud cover and a 30% chance of showers after 2 p.m. that could cap peak heating. Urban heat island effects and precise timing of maximum insolation add uncertainty; watch evening model updates from NOAA for refinements ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on April 17?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 17?
78-79°F 34%
80-81°F 24%
77°F or below 23%
82-83°F 13%
$25,044 Vol.
$25,044 Vol.
77°F or below
23%
78-79°F
34%
80-81°F
24%
82-83°F
13%
84-85°F
7%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F or higher
<1%
78-79°F 34%
80-81°F 24%
77°F or below 23%
82-83°F 13%
$25,044 Vol.
$25,044 Vol.
77°F or below
23%
78-79°F
34%
80-81°F
24%
82-83°F
13%
84-85°F
7%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service forecasts for LaGuardia Airport project a high near 80°F on April 17 under a strengthening upper-level ridge ushering in an unseasonably warm air mass, well above the mid-April climatological average of 61°F and approaching historical records around 68–74°F. Trader consensus reflects this, with market-implied odds favoring 78–81°F ranges amid GFS and ECMWF ensemble spreads of 2–4°F, influenced by variable afternoon cloud cover and a 30% chance of showers after 2 p.m. that could cap peak heating. Urban heat island effects and precise timing of maximum insolation add uncertainty; watch evening model updates from NOAA for refinements ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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