Recent model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and timeanddate places Qingdao’s August 14 high near 29°C, aligning with the market’s clustering around 30°C (35.5% implied probability) and 29–31°C outcomes. Coastal sea breezes from the Yellow Sea typically moderate peak temperatures by 1–3°C relative to inland Shandong, while scattered showers and cloud cover in the extended forecast further cap daytime maxima. Historical August averages of 29–30°C provide climatological context, with rare excursions above 34°C. Traders appear to weigh these stabilizing marine influences and short-range guidance against any potential clearing that could allow brief warming, keeping probabilities tightly distributed near the seasonal norm ahead of refined China Meteorological Administration updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on August 14?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on August 14?
30°C 36%
31°C 25%
29°C 25%
32°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
26°C or below
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
7%
29°C
25%
30°C
36%
31°C
25%
32°C
10%
33°C
4%
34°C
2%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
<1%
30°C 36%
31°C 25%
29°C 25%
32°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
26°C or below
$21 Vol.
1%
27°C
$256 Vol.
2%
28°C
$230 Vol.
7%
29°C
$7 Vol.
25%
30°C
$91 Vol.
36%
31°C
$26 Vol.
25%
32°C
$376 Vol.
10%
33°C
$25 Vol.
4%
34°C
$31 Vol.
2%
35°C
$83 Vol.
1%
36°C or higher
$115 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and timeanddate places Qingdao’s August 14 high near 29°C, aligning with the market’s clustering around 30°C (35.5% implied probability) and 29–31°C outcomes. Coastal sea breezes from the Yellow Sea typically moderate peak temperatures by 1–3°C relative to inland Shandong, while scattered showers and cloud cover in the extended forecast further cap daytime maxima. Historical August averages of 29–30°C provide climatological context, with rare excursions above 34°C. Traders appear to weigh these stabilizing marine influences and short-range guidance against any potential clearing that could allow brief warming, keeping probabilities tightly distributed near the seasonal norm ahead of refined China Meteorological Administration updates.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$1,261End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and timeanddate places Qingdao’s August 14 high near 29°C, aligning with the market’s clustering around 30°C (35.5% implied probability) and 29–31°C outcomes. Coastal sea breezes from the Yellow Sea typically moderate peak temperatures by 1–3°C relative to inland Shandong, while scattered showers and cloud cover in the extended forecast further cap daytime maxima. Historical August averages of 29–30°C provide climatological context, with rare excursions above 34°C. Traders appear to weigh these stabilizing marine influences and short-range guidance against any potential clearing that could allow brief warming, keeping probabilities tightly distributed near the seasonal norm ahead of refined China Meteorological Administration updates.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,261End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources like AccuWeather and timeanddate places Qingdao’s August 14 high near 29°C, aligning with the market’s clustering around 30°C (35.5% implied probability) and 29–31°C outcomes. Coastal sea breezes from the Yellow Sea typically moderate peak temperatures by 1–3°C relative to inland Shandong, while scattered showers and cloud cover in the extended forecast further cap daytime maxima. Historical August averages of 29–30°C provide climatological context, with rare excursions above 34°C. Traders appear to weigh these stabilizing marine influences and short-range guidance against any potential clearing that could allow brief warming, keeping probabilities tightly distributed near the seasonal norm ahead of refined China Meteorological Administration updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions