Traders heavily weight 31–32°C outcomes for São Paulo’s August 20 high because ensemble model guidance and official INMET forecasts indicate clear skies under a persistent high-pressure ridge, promoting strong daytime solar heating and afternoon humidity drops that allow surface temperatures to peak near or slightly above seasonal norms. Light winds and urban heat-island effects in the metropolitan area add 1–2°C locally compared with rural stations, while minimal precipitation risk keeps conditions stable. These factors align with recent patterns showing verified maxima of 29–31°C on prior clear days, positioning 32°C as the modal outcome at 48% implied probability. Updated model runs and the final 24-hour forecast adjustment remain the key near-term catalysts before official observations resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 20?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 20?
32°C 48%
31°C 36%
33°C 11%
30°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
26°C or below
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
2%
29°C
3%
30°C
8%
31°C
36%
32°C
48%
33°C
11%
34°C
2%
35°C
3%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 48%
31°C 36%
33°C 11%
30°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
26°C or below
$25 Vol.
1%
27°C
$22 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$10 Vol.
2%
29°C
$20 Vol.
3%
30°C
$109 Vol.
8%
31°C
$447 Vol.
36%
32°C
$571 Vol.
48%
33°C
$86 Vol.
11%
34°C
$25 Vol.
2%
35°C
$5 Vol.
3%
36°C or higher
$256 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders heavily weight 31–32°C outcomes for São Paulo’s August 20 high because ensemble model guidance and official INMET forecasts indicate clear skies under a persistent high-pressure ridge, promoting strong daytime solar heating and afternoon humidity drops that allow surface temperatures to peak near or slightly above seasonal norms. Light winds and urban heat-island effects in the metropolitan area add 1–2°C locally compared with rural stations, while minimal precipitation risk keeps conditions stable. These factors align with recent patterns showing verified maxima of 29–31°C on prior clear days, positioning 32°C as the modal outcome at 48% implied probability. Updated model runs and the final 24-hour forecast adjustment remain the key near-term catalysts before official observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 9:55 PM ET
Volume
$1,577End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 9:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders heavily weight 31–32°C outcomes for São Paulo’s August 20 high because ensemble model guidance and official INMET forecasts indicate clear skies under a persistent high-pressure ridge, promoting strong daytime solar heating and afternoon humidity drops that allow surface temperatures to peak near or slightly above seasonal norms. Light winds and urban heat-island effects in the metropolitan area add 1–2°C locally compared with rural stations, while minimal precipitation risk keeps conditions stable. These factors align with recent patterns showing verified maxima of 29–31°C on prior clear days, positioning 32°C as the modal outcome at 48% implied probability. Updated model runs and the final 24-hour forecast adjustment remain the key near-term catalysts before official observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,577End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 9:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders heavily weight 31–32°C outcomes for São Paulo’s August 20 high because ensemble model guidance and official INMET forecasts indicate clear skies under a persistent high-pressure ridge, promoting strong daytime solar heating and afternoon humidity drops that allow surface temperatures to peak near or slightly above seasonal norms. Light winds and urban heat-island effects in the metropolitan area add 1–2°C locally compared with rural stations, while minimal precipitation risk keeps conditions stable. These factors align with recent patterns showing verified maxima of 29–31°C on prior clear days, positioning 32°C as the modal outcome at 48% implied probability. Updated model runs and the final 24-hour forecast adjustment remain the key near-term catalysts before official observations resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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