Ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and Global Forecast System (GFS) models have tightly converged on a 22°C high temperature for Shanghai on April 2, driving trader consensus to near-certainty at 100% implied probability. Current observations at key stations like Xujiahui align closely, with persistent cloudy skies and light easterly winds capping daytime heating under a weak frontal pattern—above early April climatological averages of ~18°C but below 23°C thresholds. Hong Kong Observatory bulletins confirm this 12–23°C range, with mid-afternoon peaks already recorded near 22°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected partial clearing allowing minor late-day warming or station-specific measurement variances, though model ensembles show low spread and high confidence ahead of final CMA daily summary.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 2?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 2?
22°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$329,444 Vol.
$329,444 Vol.
Apr 2, 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$329,444 Vol.
$329,444 Vol.
Apr 2, 2026
15°C or below
$13,384 Vol.
No
16°C
$6,891 Vol.
No
17°C
$20,412 Vol.
No
18°C
$23,797 Vol.
No
19°C
$22,287 Vol.
No
20°C
$25,138 Vol.
No
21°C
$35,998 Vol.
No
22°C
$89,071 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$34,712 Vol.
No
24°C
$29,479 Vol.
No
25°C or higher
$28,274 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and Global Forecast System (GFS) models have tightly converged on a 22°C high temperature for Shanghai on April 2, driving trader consensus to near-certainty at 100% implied probability. Current observations at key stations like Xujiahui align closely, with persistent cloudy skies and light easterly winds capping daytime heating under a weak frontal pattern—above early April climatological averages of ~18°C but below 23°C thresholds. Hong Kong Observatory bulletins confirm this 12–23°C range, with mid-afternoon peaks already recorded near 22°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected partial clearing allowing minor late-day warming or station-specific measurement variances, though model ensembles show low spread and high confidence ahead of final CMA daily summary.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volume
$329,444End Date
Apr 2, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and Global Forecast System (GFS) models have tightly converged on a 22°C high temperature for Shanghai on April 2, driving trader consensus to near-certainty at 100% implied probability. Current observations at key stations like Xujiahui align closely, with persistent cloudy skies and light easterly winds capping daytime heating under a weak frontal pattern—above early April climatological averages of ~18°C but below 23°C thresholds. Hong Kong Observatory bulletins confirm this 12–23°C range, with mid-afternoon peaks already recorded near 22°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected partial clearing allowing minor late-day warming or station-specific measurement variances, though model ensembles show low spread and high confidence ahead of final CMA daily summary.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$329,444End Date
Apr 2, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and Global Forecast System (GFS) models have tightly converged on a 22°C high temperature for Shanghai on April 2, driving trader consensus to near-certainty at 100% implied probability. Current observations at key stations like Xujiahui align closely, with persistent cloudy skies and light easterly winds capping daytime heating under a weak frontal pattern—above early April climatological averages of ~18°C but below 23°C thresholds. Hong Kong Observatory bulletins confirm this 12–23°C range, with mid-afternoon peaks already recorded near 22°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected partial clearing allowing minor late-day warming or station-specific measurement variances, though model ensembles show low spread and high confidence ahead of final CMA daily summary.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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