USGS real-time monitoring reflects baseline global seismicity rates, positioning >9 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes at 36.5% market-implied probability as traders anticipate 9-10 total events for April 13-19, consistent with historical averages of roughly 9-10 per week from long-term catalogs following the Gutenberg-Richter distribution. In the first four days, confirmed events include a M5.5 southwest of Tonga on April 13 and a M5.5 (reviewed from preliminary 5.7) near Silver Springs, Nevada, on April 14 amid a local aftershock swarm, showing no deviation from typical stochastic patterns across major fault zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. With three days remaining, daily USGS updates on reviewed magnitudes and emerging clusters could refine counts toward resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes April 13 - April 19?
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes April 13 - April 19?
>9 37%
9 21%
8 19%
7 12%
$112,118 Vol.
$112,118 Vol.
Apr 19, 2026
≤3
<1%
4
2%
5
6%
6
10%
7
12%
8
19%
9
21%
>9
37%
>9 37%
9 21%
8 19%
7 12%
$112,118 Vol.
$112,118 Vol.
Apr 19, 2026
≤3
$73,114 Vol.
<1%
4
$7,418 Vol.
2%
5
$3,133 Vol.
6%
6
$1,392 Vol.
10%
7
$1,967 Vol.
12%
8
$2,838 Vol.
19%
9
$1,722 Vol.
21%
>9
$20,535 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS real-time monitoring reflects baseline global seismicity rates, positioning >9 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes at 36.5% market-implied probability as traders anticipate 9-10 total events for April 13-19, consistent with historical averages of roughly 9-10 per week from long-term catalogs following the Gutenberg-Richter distribution. In the first four days, confirmed events include a M5.5 southwest of Tonga on April 13 and a M5.5 (reviewed from preliminary 5.7) near Silver Springs, Nevada, on April 14 amid a local aftershock swarm, showing no deviation from typical stochastic patterns across major fault zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. With three days remaining, daily USGS updates on reviewed magnitudes and emerging clusters could refine counts toward resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Volume
$112,118End Date
Apr 19, 2026Market Opened
Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS real-time monitoring reflects baseline global seismicity rates, positioning >9 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes at 36.5% market-implied probability as traders anticipate 9-10 total events for April 13-19, consistent with historical averages of roughly 9-10 per week from long-term catalogs following the Gutenberg-Richter distribution. In the first four days, confirmed events include a M5.5 southwest of Tonga on April 13 and a M5.5 (reviewed from preliminary 5.7) near Silver Springs, Nevada, on April 14 amid a local aftershock swarm, showing no deviation from typical stochastic patterns across major fault zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. With three days remaining, daily USGS updates on reviewed magnitudes and emerging clusters could refine counts toward resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$112,118End Date
Apr 19, 2026Market Opened
Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...USGS real-time monitoring reflects baseline global seismicity rates, positioning >9 magnitude 5.5+ earthquakes at 36.5% market-implied probability as traders anticipate 9-10 total events for April 13-19, consistent with historical averages of roughly 9-10 per week from long-term catalogs following the Gutenberg-Richter distribution. In the first four days, confirmed events include a M5.5 southwest of Tonga on April 13 and a M5.5 (reviewed from preliminary 5.7) near Silver Springs, Nevada, on April 14 amid a local aftershock swarm, showing no deviation from typical stochastic patterns across major fault zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. With three days remaining, daily USGS updates on reviewed magnitudes and emerging clusters could refine counts toward resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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